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Prairie Grains is the official publication of
the Minnesota
Association of
Wheat Growers,
North Dakota Grain Growers Association,
South Dakota Wheat, Inc., and the Minnesota Barley Growers Association.

Why are yield goals important? They affect fertilizer use and plant population decisions. This in turn has a direct impact on projected cost of production. And calculating your anticipated cost of production has a major impact on marketing decisions.

Fertilizer recommendations are based on the results of a soil sample analysis in combination with a realistic yield goal. If goals are too high, money is spent needlessly on fertilizer. If yield goals are too low, recommended fertilizer rates aren’t sufficient for the most profitable yield and farm profitability is being reduced.

The following can have a major impact on yield goals: soil texture and associated available water, drainage, rainfall probabilities, length of growing season, soil moisture recharge, and differences in native soil productivity.

There are several methods used to set yield goals. Using maximum yield produced in the past revolves around remembering the top yield produced on your land or your neighbor’s land in the recent past. Using farm and/or county averages is a relatively easy method to use. Farm or field averages can be derived from farm records. Many statistical summaries of crop production list county averages.

However, average yields do not make the most efficient use of production inputs such as herbicides and fertilizers. Adjusting the past average is a common and realistic approach to setting yield goals. With this approach, the recent average (3-5 years) is increased by 10% to 20%, with the higher yield becoming the yield goal. With this method, the average yield of fields should increase each year if not limited by stress conditions.