 |
|
Issue 27 |
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
|||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
||||
Grain Market Gleaning By Tracy Sayler Crop market planning software available Country Hedging and the University of Minnesota's Center for Farm Financial Management have teamed up to develop "Marketeer," a new crop market planning tool. The software program walks you through a step-by-step process of writing a crop marketing plan using a menu of marketing strategies. The downloadable software along with a free downloadable trial version are available at the CFFM's web site, www.cffm.umn.edu. Click on the "Marketeer" link on the homepage. Minimum system requirements: Pentium 180 or better PC running Windows 95+, Windows NT 4.0+, or Windows 2000; 32M of RAM; 100M of free hard drive space. Cost is $295. For more info, contact the CFFM at 1-800-234-1111. Locking in the loan; long-range planning prices
While you're at the CFFM's web site at www.cffm.umn.edu,
check out the online backgrounder "Request to Lock in a Market Loan Repayment Rate (CCC-697)." The link can be found under farm management information topics. It explains the Farm Service Agency rule change that
separated the process of requesting a market authorization and the locking-in of a CCC loan repayment rate. Also under the CFFM farm management information topics is a worksheet to help with long-range crop and
livestock planning prices. Tierney: wheat stocks/use decline likely Despite a reduction in winter
wheat seedings in China (down 7%) and the U.S (down 1%), acreage increases in the EU (up 4%) and improvements in world yields are expected to produce a slightly larger world wheat crop in 2000 (projected up 5 million
metric tons ). There is, however, a significant risk that world wheat stocks could fall. A slightly larger world crop next year would be more than offset by a "trend" increase in consumption. That could push the ratio
of world stocks/use (world wheat ending stocks) to their second (or third) lowest level in over 40 years, according to Bill Tierney, Kansas State University ag economist. Still, while it's possible that some
unexpected export business could develop, it's not likely, he says. A southern hemisphere wheat crop that is 10% larger than last year, larger ending stocks in Canada, and the continued use of export subsidies by the
EU, ensures that there will be strong competition for this year's remaining world wheat import demand. Tierney's "AgUpdate Newsletter" may be found online at Early call on March 31 prospective plantings USDA will release its prospective plantings report on March 31. The early prognostication by many marketing experts is that durum acreage will be down over 10% (less lucrative durum CRC) an increase in barley acres, spring wheat acres close to last year, sunflower down some (disease) with soybeans, flax, and canola acreage holding firm because of producers "planting the loan rate." Keep in mind that spring wheat prices often rebound in the spring, and basis often improves as well, offering selling and contracting opportunities, says George Flaskerud, NDSU extension crops marketing specialist. U.S. winter wheat planted acreage lowest since 1972 The U.S. winter wheat seeded area for 2000 is expected to total 42.9 million acres, down1% from 1999 and the smallest area since 1972, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. 2000 northern plains winter wheat seedings (in 1,000 acres)
1998 1999 2000 % change
MN : 60 40 20 50
ND : 70 60 100 167
SD : 1,500 1,300 1,350 104
MT : 1,400 1,050 1,500 143
US : 46,449 43,431 42,916 99 |
||||
 |
||||