By Dr. Jochum Wiersma, University of Minnesota small grains specialist

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Prairie Grains is the official publication of
the Minnesota
Association of
Wheat Growers,
North Dakota Grain Growers Association,
South Dakota Wheat, Inc., and the Minnesota Barley Growers Association.

In December 1998, the Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station released MN Varietal Trial Results, which was mailed out to Minnesota producers. If you didn’t receive a copy, contact your county extension office in MN. While you’re at it, pick up a copy of Cultural and Chemical Weed Control in Field Crops.

In hard red spring wheat, there were several new releases in 1998 which may be available as registered or certified seed. Mercury (North Star Genetics), Ingot (SDSU), HJ98 (UM), Hagar (AgriPro) and Ivan (AgriPro) were some of the new spring wheat releases.

Variety selection is still a balance between yield potential, grain quality, and disease resistance in the Red River Valley region. Although 1998 will be remembered as a good year, losses to Fusarium head blight or scab were still notable in many areas. Even with the availability of a fungicide at heading to suppress the disease, the ratings for FHB cannot be ignored in selecting a variety.

Hence, part of your acreage should be planted to varieties that are all but most tolerant to this disease. Varieties like 2375, Ingot, Gunner or even Bacup fit in this category. Part of your farm can be planted to potentially higher productive wheat like Oxen, Verde, HJ98, Forge or Russ, keeping in mind that these wheat varieties should not be planted on previous-year wheat, barley or corn ground. Actually, rotating into any of those three crops with wheat or barley isn’t recommended at all. Similarly, any varieties that rate susceptible to scab (S for severity and a tolerance score higher than 3.0) should probably not be part of your variety choice if you farm in the Red River Valley or surrounding areas.

So how much seed should you buy? When you buy seed, you should calculate your seeding rate. Ask for the seed count (number of seeds per band) and germination percentage. Calculate the number of pounds of seed you need with a target population of 30 plants of square feet and estimate your expected stand loss (expect 10-20% minimum stand loss). The formula for this is:

Thus, to determine the number of pounds of seed you need to buy you first multiply 1.25 million times 1.15 (if you assume 15% stand loss). This means that you will need to plant 1.44 million live seeds per acre. If the seed lot in question has 15,000 seeds per pound and the germination rate is 95% that equals 14250 live seeds per pound of seed purchased. Thus you will need to buy 1.44 million divided by 14250 or 101 lbs. seed per care. Buy seed by the number of pounds you need, not just the number of acres times 1.5 bushels.

A final note about saved seed: using saved seed is not a problem as long as you clean it, store and ventilate it properly, and check the germination on it. It should have a minimum germination of 85%. Use a seed treatment if diseased-damaged kernels are clearly visible in the seedlot.

Projected crop prices for ‘99 planning

Placing a value on next year’s crops is difficult to do this far in advance, and next year’s weather in the 1999 growing season is anybody’s guess. Still, production planning and financial planning require that at least tentative decisions be made about what next year’s crops might be worth, says George Flaskerud, NDSU extension crops economist.

A reasonable approach to projecting prices is to look at what supply and demand figures might be, based on normal weather for the 1999 growing season, he says. Then, derive grain price estimates at the U.S. level, and using historical price relationships, at the local level.

Seasonal average farm prices were projected last September for the 1999 marketing year at the U.S. level by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI). They projected prices of $3.10 for wheat, $2.11 for corn and $5.42 for soybeans. These projections are based on acres decreasing by about 3% for wheat, 2% for corn and 2% for soybeans.

The trade appears to be expecting a greater reduction in wheat acres and additional acres of corn and soybeans, says Flaskerud. Given a normal basis, Minneapolis spring wheat futures (as of Nov. 30, 1998) suggest a November, 1999 price in ND of about $3.50. Chicago futures prices suggest a November price in ND of $2.15 for corn and an October price of $5.60 for soybeans.

Based on these futures prices and adjustments to FAPRI’s acreages, plan on 1999 fourth quarter prices in ND to average $3.50 for spring wheat, $1.80 for corn and $4.90 for soybeans, says Flaskerud. Strength in wheat comes from anticipated reductions in the planting of wheat, while increased acres and burdensome stocks will hold down prices for corn and soybeans.

Durum acres are likely to be reduced in response to the small premium for durum over spring wheat. Acreage adjustments will likely bring the premium back to the traditional 50 cents farmers feel they need to grow durum rather than spring wheat. He says this would imply a $4.00 price for durum for the fall of 1999.

Historical price relationships suggest ND planning prices of $1.40 for feed barley, $2.00 for malting barley and $1.25 for oats. The projected prices for feed barley and oats are near loan values.

Favorable loan rates will likely cause additional acres of minor oilseeds, says Flaskerud. Consequently, effective prices for oil sunflowers, canola and flax will likely be near loan values. The 10-year average premium for non-oil sunflowers has been 35% more than oil sunflowers.