Issue 25
January 2000

Prairie Grains is the official publication of the Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers, North Dakota Grain Growers Association, South Dakota Wheat, Inc., and the Minnesota Barley Growers Association.

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Copyright
Prairie Grains Magazine
January 2000

Top ten trends "from moonlight to satellite"

Kansas State University ag economist Barry Flinchbaugh, who serves as chair of a national commission in charge of reviewing the "Freedom to Farm" legislation and what direction U.S. ag policy might take after F2F expires, says his "grandpappy" used to farm by the vagaries of the Farmer's Almanac.  Today, many producers employ computers and global positioning in their operations.  As Flinchbaugh calls it, this might be a "moonlight to satellite" transition in farming.  He says there are ten trends in agriculture that bear watching in the 21st Century:

10.  Ag is losing its uniqueness

Production agriculture will become a part of corporate America, and more of a partner in the food chain.  There will still be family-based farms, but fewer of them, with even more political power than they have now.

9. He/she who knows the consumer will be in charge

Farmers can develop a link to the end user by producing what consumers want to eat.  "The cattle industry for years promoted U.S. prime with an inch of fat on steak, and then wondered why people were eating more chicken and less beef," says Flinchbaugh, although he adds, the beef folks have caught on.  "This summer, the beef industry unveiled a fully prepared dinner.  How will what you do fit in? And don't think how your commodity fits, but how your products fit."

8.  Food safety will dwarf environmental issues

Technology can solve environmental issues (Odor is at the center of the corporate hog farm debate, and researchers will succeed in taking the odor out of hog farms), but solving food safety issues requires consumer education (mix irradiated foods with non-irradiated foods, and the non-irradiated foods may become contaminated).  Producers who wish to become closer to consumers must also help educate them about food safety .

7.  Access to technology and information will be the key to competitiveness

Public versus private control will become more of an issue, especially as biotechnology progresses.

6.  Economic concentration will be the top political issue in the next decade

At the beginning of the 1900s, it was an issue with railroads and oil.  At the beginning of this next century, it will be an issue as well, cutting across many sectors including technology, finance, markets, and information.

5.  Agriculture will be global and therefore, more risky and unstable

Global competitiveness will determine whether U.S. ag progresses or regresses.  Politics will still influence economics, but political boundaries will be less significant.

4.  Devolution will be existing dimultaneously with globalization

Returning functions and power to state and local government is clearly the trend.  How to be global and local will be a challenge.

3.  Government safety net will catch fewer producers

Government safety net will catch fewer producers and organizations, but at the same time, regulations will increase.  More risk will shift to the private sector.

2. Production will have a contractual home before seed enters the soil or conception occurs

The contractor will offer competitive financing and marketing services.  Branded food names will become more well known to consumers, and partnering throughout the food chain will be the norm.

1.  21st Century Ag will be known as 'The Partnership Era'

The next generation of farmers will take agriculture permanently into the business world.  "The challenge now is getting farmers and their institutions to cooperate and partner," says Flinchbaugh.  "Individual and institutional attitudes are changing, but is it fast enough?"