The good news for farm policy in the year 2000 is that it's an election year. The bad news for farm policy in the year 2000 is that it's an election year.We're
not sure what U.S. and global grain supplies were when the calendar flipped from 1899 to 1900, but our guess is that it wasn't near the supplies we've got in hand 100 years later.
U.S. corn carryover for the
1999/00 marketing year is projected to be over 2 billion bushels, beans close to 400 million bushels, and wheat, over 1 billion bushels. Despite drought in some U.S. cropland areas and too much water in others
(like the Northern Plains) somehow, we're still finding ways to produce grain. And so are other countries, meaning that not only do we have big carryover numbers to manage, but a lackluster export outlook on top
of it.
Forget the economists and bring in the paleontologists: the market bulls look to stay buried for at least another year, barring extremes in weather or production in 2000.
That means the pressure will
be on lawmakers to shore up market losses for a third straight year. The elections as mentioned earlier will serve to both support and siderail the farm issue. On one hand, lawmakers will be more likely to
listen and to act. Control of both the Senate and the House is up for grabs, and the rural vote still matters much to both Republicans and Democrats. The likelihood for some sort of action appears promising.
On the other hand, lawmakers probably won't take any action until early fall, because 1) they will want a better harvest picture to determine the size and scope of a third assistance package, if any; 2) a farm
package struck just weeks before the election buys better leverage at the ballot box than a deal at spring thaw. Unfortunately, many farm lenders may not follow the same logic: they will want cash flow assurances
well before the red, white, and blue balloons are dropped at the party nominating conventions.
The political winds are blowing, but rest assured, your wheat and barley associations are already building a sailboat—or a
lifeboat, as it may be—to address farm income needs in 2000. We are exploring options to communicate with lawmakers (a report of which may be found in this issue of Prairie Grains) and hope to do as much as
we can as soon as we can this year to leverage farm policy changes this election year..
As a group, we can again make a difference in the legislative arena. You as an individual need to do your part as
well. Use this off-season to research the best options for your farm and your family. And if you are not already a member of your state's grain associations, then this is the year to become one. You
can find more membership details in this issue of Prairie Grains.
"Association Perspectives" represents the views of the Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers, North Dakota Grain Growers Association, South
Dakota Wheat Inc., and the Minnesota Barley Growers Association.
