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Prairie Grains is the official publication of
the Minnesota
Association of
Wheat Growers,
North Dakota Grain Growers Association,
South Dakota Wheat, Inc., and the Minnesota Barley Growers Association.

• All wheat in all storage positions Dec. 1, 1998 totaled 1.89 billion bushels, up 17% from a year ago to the biggest December inventory since 1990. Farm stocks (680 million bushels) were up 13% and off-farm stocks (1.21 billion bushels) were up 19%.

• Durum wheat stocks in all positions Dec. 1, 1998 totaled 109 million bushels, up 62% from a year ago and the biggest December inventory since 1990. Farm stocks, at 75.3 million bushels, were more than double those of 1997.

• Winter wheat seeded area for 1999 is expected to total 43.4 million acres, down 7% from 1998 and the smallest area since 1972.

• Montana’s hard red winter wheat acreage (see table at right) is the smallest since 1937.

• Idaho’s white winter wheat number is the lowest since 1962, and Oregon and Washington’s acreage is the least since 1988.

• Breaking the total down by class shows that hard red winter is down 5%, soft red winter is down 12%, white winter is down 11% and durum in Arizona and California is down 42%.

Despite the lower winter wheat acreage, ample stocks and lackluster wheat export demand will keep wheat market rallies in check. A modest rally of wheat prices is expected in the weeks ahead to at least $3.80 in Minneapolis May and September wheat futures, according to George Flaskerud, NDSU extension crops economist. Prices at this level would represent an increase of about 25 cents above December lows.

Many in the trade are expecting that producers will plant fewer spring wheat acres in 1999, compared to a year ago. Such a reduction or the anticipation of it in USDA’s March 31 Planting Intentions Report appears necessary for a rally in the spring wheat price if growing conditions continue favorable for winter wheat, says Flaskerud.

Winter wheat acreage (1,000 acres)