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Updated Seasonal Price Patterns from NDSU
North Dakota State University has released a new booklet on seasonal crop price patterns, Extension Service Publication EB-61. The publication was released in December 2000 and is an updated version of the
publication released in August 1993. It presents seasonal patterns for cash and futures prices for a number of commodities with different levels of new crop supplies.
Seasonal price movements will vary depending on supply and demand fundamentals, says NDSU extension crops economist George Flaskerud. While crop prices in the cash and futures markets are usually the
lowest near harvest and the highest near the end of the marketing year, deviations in grain supplies and other factors can have a pronounced impact on seasonal price patterns.
Using these price patterns as a guide for developing a marketing plan is examined in the first part of the publication. Several steps are involved. Supply and demand fundamentals are used to determine an
expected seasonal average price. A distribution of prices during the marketing year is forecast with the help of seasonal price indexes. Price objectives are determined, keeping storage costs in mind. Those times of
the year when prices are usually the highest for various supply situations are used as time deadlines for selling a percentage of the crop.
Price patterns tended to deviate considerably from the usual pattern during “short” or “large” crop years, according to the seasonal price patterns presented in the publication. Prices tended to peak later
than usual during “short” crop years and earlier during “large” crop years. The results indicated that seasonal price patterns can be used as a guide for developing a marketing plan when they are examined along with
supply and demand information and other marketing concepts.
The publication can be obtained from county offices of the NDSU Extension Service or from the Distribution Center, NDSU Extension Service, Fargo, ND 58105.
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