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Betsy’s Bulls & Bears Answers to your marketing questions QUESTION: Why doesn’t USDA release a winter wheat acreage report until January? Couldn’t they release a preliminary report in November and then finalize it in January or February? Yes, I suppose they could, but I think you’re placing too much value in USDA reports. There are enough private firms who have already released their own winter wheat acreage numbers, and it’s very likely that USDA’s number will be very similar. There are private firms who are already releasing corn, soybean and spring wheat acreage numbers, and many farmers haven’t even purchased seed yet! Just because USDA hasn’t issued its number, doesn’t mean that traders don’t have their own numbers floating around in the trading pits. USDA report numbers actually mean nothing by themselves. You need to first look at what private firms are estimating, and then compare those to the USDA numbers. It’s not what the USDA numbers actually say, it is what they say relative to what traders think. Before the report, you can find at least 20 private estimates. With USDA reports, it’s best to expect the unexpected. Even if the numbers come in bullish compared to pre-report estimates, the market might trade in the opposite direction. USDA reports are good because they bring everyone back to the same level. It lets the traders come to a common trading point, but 5 minutes after the numbers are released you can already find trader commentary about what is going to happen in the next report. Don’t bet the farm on what the USDA report is going to say. Even if you’re correct, the market might head in entirely the opposite direction.
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If you have a question you would like Betsy to answer in
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