At the Prairie
Grains Conference held recently in Fargo, Judi Adams, president of the Wheat Foods Council, presented an overview of wheat foods trends. A look at some of those trends:
Ethnic trends can influence grains consumption—From1995-2000, the hispanic population accounted for 37% of national growth. This is projected to climb to 44% by 2020 and 62% by 2060. Bakery
spending among hispanics is below the national average except for white bread, sweet rolls, coffee cakes and donuts. Cereal consumption is above average. The U.S. Asian population is the second fastest growing
ethnic group, increasing 20% from 1990 to 1997. Asian foods have a marked increase in sales in some supermarkets, and Asian noodles now have their own section in the book, "Joy of Cooking."
Consumer demand for freshness continues—According to 2 of the nation's largest bakeries, "freshness" is still the number one requirement in a loaf of bread Biotechnology may help make "softer" bread, which may or
may not be translated as "fresher."
Millers and bakers continue to demand quality wheat—Baking characteristics are affected by both variety of wheat and the environment: Mixing times/dough properties are more
dependent on variety, bake absorption by environment, and protein, loaf volume and crumb grain by both. Biotechnology may bring a greater influence on quality.
Increased demand for functional foods
—Kellogg's "Ensemble" line has added oats or pysllium for soluble fiber, IronKids Bread-calcium; Lipton's "Take Control Margarine"- plant sterol esters for reducing cholesterol; Hain's "Kitchen Prescription Soups" -
echinacea for the immune system and St. John's Wort for anti-depression. In the future, will we see completely fortified bread like some cereals?
Continued demand for old favorites and new products—Per
capita disappearance of wheat flour increased 30% in the 20 years from 1977 to 1997.
Bagels are a mature product—Consumption increased 187% in the past 10 years, and was the 6th fastest growing food of
the 1990s. But the number of stores outgrew demand. The fresh and refrigerated bagel market is still growing; frozen decreasing. Annual American consumption is still only 2.2 bagels per person
Pasta holding steady—Pasta is the third fastest growing food of the 1990s, although from October 1998 to October 1999, volume sales have been flat.
Tortillas wrap up growth—Have increased 10%/yr since
1980. "Wrap" products have spurred growth (primarily food service, not retail). Schools have taken up flavored tortillas. Nearly 60% are consumed by non-Latinos. It was a $3.3 billion market in U.S. (1998)
Two-thirds of the product market is wheat flour (4 billion pounds); one-third corn. Best potential growth is in the East Coast and Upper Midwest.
Pizza on the rise—The 10th fastest growing food of the
decade. There was a 10% increase in frozen pizza crusts in '97. The average American eats 46 slices per year.
Bread machines and flour mixes—There are 200 models on the market, and 3 million machines are
sold annually. Family flour consumption increased 11.5% from '94-95; probably due to bread machines, which now take up 12% of the flour market. Bread mix sales in 1993: $2.9 million. In 1995: $29 million.
Hearth and variety breads zoom—In 1976 had 26% of the total bread market. Today it's 47% of the bread market and 58% of the sales ($3 billion). Spurred by interest in health, ethnic foods and increased
ethnic population.
White bread decreasing, but still "flagship"— A $2.2 billion market, still a "flagship" of the wheat foods industry, but percentage of the market is decreasing as variety breads
increase. In 1976, white bread had 74% of the bread market; in 1997, 53%. Americans consume 53 lb. of bread annually.
Couscous cruising—A growing product, although no hard statistics. An estimated
16 million lb. are consumed annually, up from 5.5 million in '92, which equals a 25% per year increase. Consumption is still low, however, at about 1 oz./person annually.
Cereals can improve—The
ready-to-eat cereal market is about $7.4 billion annually. RTE dollar volume decreased 2.3% in 1998. In 1995, Americans ate 17.1 pounds of cereal each. Of that, 14.6 pounds was ready-to-eat, and 2.5 pounds cooked.
Great opportunities for increased consumption—Americans still only eat 6.7 servings of grains per day, while they should be eating 6 - 11. The industry must continue to provide fresh, tasty, nutritious and
innovative products. To this end, Adams quotes Say's Law: "Supply creates its own demand. It's not so much what consumers will demand, but what technology and imagination will provide."
