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World durum
production in 2009 is expected to reach 1.37 billion bushels, a decline of 3 percent from last year’s production, which was the second highest production level in recent years. Production is down in the three major
durum exporting countries – the U.S., Canada and the EU, while it is expected to increase in the North African region and Mexico. Even with the decline in production for the three major exporting countries, supplies
look to remain relatively ample due to larger carry-in stocks and a potential decline in demand in the North African region.
Production in the EU is forecasted at 300 million bushels, down 18 percent from 2008. Harvest in the EU is reaching completion and it
appears the biggest decline in production is in Italy where adverse weather conditions caused yields to decline and also caused reports of disappointing quality. Production in the largest producing country will
decline by 37 percent. The smaller crop this year and lower quality may lead to increased import demand since Italy is an enormous user of durum and is the largest export market for U.S. durum. Production and
quality fared better in France and Spain, but they are much smaller producers compared to Italy. Import demand for the entire EU region is expected to be nearly 30 percent higher than in 2008, while export potential
will decline significantly.
In Canada, plantings in 2009 are estimated at 5.6 million acres, down from 6.0 million in 2008. A later than normal planting season
has caused crop development to be about 2 weeks behind normal and extremely dry conditions in portions of the durum region will negatively affect yields. The combined lower plantings and expected lower yields may
cause production to drop 22 percent to 158 million bushels. Higher carry-in stocks will result in only a small decline in total supplies and thus exports are expected to increase by 6 percent to 140 million bushels.
In the U.S., durum plantings in 2009 totaled 2.56 million acres compared to 2.73 million in 2008. Desert durum plantings drop only
slightly while North Dakota planted an estimated 100,000 fewer durum acres in 2009. Development of the U.S. crop is slightly behind the average pace due to late spring planting, but improved moisture levels over
2008 and cooler growing conditions appear to be keeping the crop in mostly good to excellent condition and yield potential is higher than last year. Areas of dryness in the durum region are a concern, but producers
are hoping for continued timely precipitation. Production in the U.S. is estimated at 81 million bushels, down only slightly from 85 million bushels in 2008. Durum exports from the U.S. are expected to increase by
30 percent to 30 million bushels.
Total production in the three major exporting countries will be down about 18 percent, but higher beginning stocks will support total
supply levels, which are only expected to decline by 5 percent. Although supplies look to remain plentiful, final quality in all three countries could play a big part in the demand situation and price outlook.
Currently, durum prices have declined due to fairly good production prospects and the onset of harvest in the Desert Durum region and in Mexico. Increased demand in the EU and potential quality problems in that
region may add some support to prices in months to come. The next market moving factor will be the harvests in Canada and the U.S.
The North African countries of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia account for roughly 40 percent of total world durum import demand. The
countries do have domestic durum production so total import demand depends on the size and quality of their own crop. The majority of the harvest is complete in this region and results were even better than expected
with high yields and good quality. Production in Algeria is expected to more than double to 80 million bushels, production in Morocco will be almost twice the amount produced in 2008 at 70 million bushels and
Tunisia’s production will be close to 2008 levels at 51 million bushels. The overall increase in domestic supplies will cause import demand to decline nearly 20 percent. Harvest is nearly complete in Syria and
Turkey as well and combined production is estimated to increase by 17 percent to 180 million bushels.
Production in Mexico is estimated at 81 million bushels, up from 73 million in 2008 and exports from that country are projected to increase by 14 percent to 29 million bushels.
Combined ending stocks in Canada, the EU and the U.S. at the end of 2009-10 are forecast to remain relatively ample at 107 million
bushels, although slightly lower than last year’s 121 million, but still nearly 80 percent higher than the historically low levels in 2008. Total exports in the three countries combined are projected to decline,
mainly due to lower demand from the North African region, but domestic usage should be similar to last year. Given the projections for production and usage, world durum supplies look to remain at much more
comfortable levels than the 2007-08 crop year. However, final production and quality parameters for Canada and the U.S. won’t be known for at least a couple of months adding some uncertainty to the situation.
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