By Tracy Sayler

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Prairie Grains is the official publication of
the Minnesota
Association of
Wheat Growers,
North Dakota Grain Growers Association,
South Dakota Wheat, Inc., and the Minnesota Barley Growers Association.

When the Trade Watches Winter Wheat Development Most
The winter wheat crop is in generally good shape. State reports indicate that the hard red winter wheat crop in Kansas and Oklahoma is in mostly good to excellent condition. The crop in Texas is rated mostly fair, a mid-level rating. Whether the record hard red winter wheat yields of the last two years can be repeated depends on the critical development period which is still ahead, says Flaskerud. Randy Martinson, account executive with Progressive Ag Marketing (www.progressiveag.com) in Fargo, says that the trade is most sensitive to winter wheat development from the end of dormancy through the boot stage, or March through May. By June, the crop is pretty much made, with few surprises.

Don’t Get Stuck With a Pile of Grain!
Spring is a critical selling period for grain producers, says Martinson, because historically, it offers seasonal rallies. "We generally don’t want to be holding anything after May, otherwise we’ll have to wait for the basis to improve into November," he says.

Utterback: mid-May will be a key period for the market
If the May 10 crop progress report doesn’t show signs of delayed planting, and the May 12 supply/demand report doesn’t show higher usage, any spring rally will grind to a halt, says Robert Utterback (www.utterback.com), Farm Journal Outlook Editor and president of Indiana-based Utterback Marketing Services, Inc. His comments pertain to corn, but if it happens, soybeans and wheat could follow as well. Utterback was a speaker at the 1999 USDA Ag Outlook Forum. Among the points he made:
• Adequate soil moisture means weather-related crop difficulties, if they come at all, will be late like 1983.
• The loan deficiency payment will be a critical part of any profit from the 1999 crop. Producers must be alert to defend against a 1998-style early harvest low and fall recovery influence on their LDP payments.
• A higher loan rate than other crops will attract soybean acreage. Demand will respond to lower prices, but not fast enough to match the increase in production. Result: Carryover could potentially grow to a level not seen since 1985 and maybe to record highs. The soybean market is unlikely to offer anything better than marketing loan less storage cost plus or minus basis gain.
• The government may step in to help, but not, if at all, until after the 1999 crop is confirmed. Utterback says he hopes for a review of policy to give some incentive to reduce acres when carryover exceeds 1.5 billion in corn, 350 in beans and 600 in wheat in the 2000 production year.

Utterback’s complete 1999 Corn and Soybean Outlook presentation may be found on the web: http://www.usda.gov/agency/oce/waob/outlook99/99speeches .htm.

IGC: 1999/00 World Wheat Stocks May be Lowest since 1980
The International Grains Council (IGC) in its report late March decreased world wheat consumption for 1998-99 by 7 million tons, to 586 MMT. The decline is attributable mainly to reduced estimates of feed use in China and other countries. Carryover stocks of wheat for 1998-99 are 6 million tons higher, at 129 million tons. However, the IGC pegged early 1999/00 world wheat production at 569 MMT, 14 MMT below the 583 MMT in 1998. World wheat trade is forecast by IGC to rise by 6 MT, and output is expected to decline in several major producing regions. World wheat stocks are forecast to fall by 24 MT, to 105 MT, which the IGC said would be the lowest since 1980. Stocks in the five major exporting countries are forecast to decline by 10 million tons, but the IGC said they would still be the second highest since 1993-94. The large part of the decrease is expected to occur in China, the world’s largest wheat producer.

MGGA Unveils MarketManager Online
The Montana Grain Growers Association has unveiled a new web site, Montana MarketManager Online. The web site, http://www.montanamarketmanager.org, features daily market news and commentary, weather links, pricing information, market education and references, historical charts, and other marketing resource links.