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Fusarium Head Blight (FHB, Scab) Epidemic Risk Forecasting System
Minnesota’s State System -- Management of FHB includes an integrated approach such as growing cultivars with resistance, applying fungicide at the early flowering growth stage, and
managing infested crop residue with rotation and/or tillage. Epidemic risk predictions of FHB are used as decision aids to determine whether a fungicide application should be made to protect the crop. Since 2004, a
statewide FHB epidemic risk forecasting system has been operational and free of charge at http://mawg.cropdisease.com.
The Minnesota FHB epidemic risk forecasting system website is funded by the Minnesota Wheat Research and
Promotion Council, and maintained by Meridian Environmental Technology, Inc. (Meridian) in cooperation with the University of Minnesota. Meridian maintains a comprehensive weather database that integrates data
collected from surface-observed stations and remotely-sensed information from weather radars and satellites. Observed weather conditions throughout Minnesota are recorded by federal and state agencies such as the
National Weather Service and the Federal Aviation Administration (>82 stations), the Minnesota Department of Transportation, Road Weather Information System (93 stations), and the North Dakota Agricultural
Weather Network (NDAWN; 10 stations). Remotely-sensed information originates from six NEXt Generation Weather RADar (NEXRAD) weather radars. The outcome is a 4-km resolution composite of hourly precipitation,
temperature, and humidity data which is used to update the forecasting system every three hours for a total of eight times a day.
During 2004, five on-farm disease management experiments were conducted within commercial production fields located from north to south in the Red River Valley (near Kittson, Strathcona, Oklee, Perley, and Fergus Falls). During
2005, experiments were again planted at similar locations (near Kittson, Strathcona, Oklee, Perley, and Rothsay). Unfortunately, stand losses due to severe weather and flooding resulted in tests at the Kittson and
Strathcona locations being discontinued. During 2006 and 2007, tests were planted near Oklee and Fergus Falls while in 2008 trials were established near Fisher and St. Hilaire. In total, from 2004 to 2008, disease
severity from 25 environments (location + variety flowering period) was tracked and ground-truth data were collected from replicated, small-plot experiments consisting of data from five to 15 wheat varieties.
During 2004, the FHB risk forecasting model predicted an elevated (moderate to high) risk that an FHB epidemic would occur in two of
the five environments, but none were observed. During 2005, it predicted an elevated epidemic risk in one of six environments. An epidemic occurred at that location, as well as at another location where the system
predicted a low risk for an epidemic. During 2006-2008, the model predicted low risks in all environments, and no epidemics were observed.
During the last five years, Minnesota’s forecasting system has been incorrect three out of 25 situations. It predicted two epidemics
which didn’t occur, and failed to predict one that did.
National Forecasting System -- Deployed since 2004, the national FHB epidemic risk forecasting system
website located at www.wheatscab.psu.edu is supported by the U.S. Wheat and Barley
Scab Initiative. The system services the central and eastern U.S. wheat community located in 24 states, including Minnesota. A number of weather data sources are used by the national model system, with the most
substantial data contributions provided by federal agencies. The national epidemic risk forecasting system relies primarily on remote-sensed weather data devices (e.g.: radar, satellites), whereas the Minnesota
relies primarily on observed station data. A disease forecasting component based on 24 hour and 48 hour weather forecasts was added to the national model in during 2006. The Minnesota system also incorporated
disease forecasts into its risk forecasting website during 2008.
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