Association Perspectives

Observations from the Drought of 2006

Some random observations on this year’s drought, which extended to a varying degree from Texas into Canada:

There are relative degrees of drought. It was drier than usual in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, but not as dry as western N.D. and Montana, and even areas out west were not as dry as a pocket that extended around Highway 83 from about Bismarck to Pierre. Then there are areas of the High Plains in eastern Colorado, western Kansas, and southwest Nebraska that are going on five to six years of drought.

Drought is tougher on the livestock guys.  Pastures and stock dams dry up, hay and forage supplies become short, feed grain becomes more expensive, and nitrate poisoning becomes a concern in forage crops that accumulate toxic amounts of nitrate in dry conditions. The only option in some cases is to liquidate the herd, which for ranchers can be devastating.

Crops in a number of areas fared surprisingly well, despite the drought. A late spring snowstorm in southwest N.D. helped buoy soil moisture, while the Red River Valley was helped by ample subsoil moisture. Wheat yields in many cases turned out better than expected, and this year’s sugarbeet harvest in the Red River Valley turned out excellent, taking advantage of the subsoil moisture. Beans and corn were below average in many cases and disked under in some cases, but many growers were nonetheless surprised at how long the crops hung in there, a function of both better genetics and management practices, such as no-till.

No-till will carry a crop only so far. No-till definitely helped preserve some soil moisture, although a string of 100-degree plus days will scorch yield potential no matter the tillage system.  No-tilling does offer the additional advantage of reducing trips across the field, thus saving on input costs. 

Today’s costs compound production shortfalls.  Comparisons have been made to past droughts, such as 1988, which some say was worse than 2006.  However, no previous drought has ever occurred at the same time farmers have had to face $3 fuel and $500/ton fertilizer, not to mention today’s equipment costs and operating loan interest rates that have risen substantially in the past year.

It offers opportunities for better sales and savings on the ’07 crop.  On the bright side, the drought will result in a supply shortfall for some crops, offering market price support. Also, failed crops may leave behind unused fertilizer in the soil to be used by next year’s crops, although farmers will need to test the soil to get an accurate read of what soil nutrients are there.

The quandary of crop insurance and disaster aid continues. It’s a common complaint that crop insurance doesn’t adequately cover actual production losses.  Grain groups and farm state lawmakers are lobbying hard for disaster aid to help cover the shortfall. Perhaps the inadequacies of crop insurance and how/if disaster aid should apply will be addressed in the next farm bill.

Don’t make the assumption drought will begat drought.  We tend to have short growing season memories, and we shouldn’t assume that next year will also be hot and dry, or that the cycle of excessive moisture and disease potential is over. A balanced approach that considers long-term production and weather averages is best for crop selection, rotation, and management.

Farming runs on optimism.  “This is the best ‘better luck next year’ business in the whole world,” says longtime grower Don Streifel of Washburn, N.D., about farming. “If you lose that outlook, you might as well get out of it.”

– by Tracy Sayler