Issue 51
Prairie Grains

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Prairie Grains is the official publication of the Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers, North Dakota Grain Growers Association, Montana Grain Growers Association and South Dakota Wheat, Inc.

Copyright Prairie Grains Magazine
March 2003

IGC Pegs 2003/04 World Wheat Production Up From Last Year

In its second forecast of 2003/04 production, the International Grains Council pegs the new world wheat crop at 597 million metric tons (mmt), with major gains in the U.S., Canada, Australia and Argentina more than offsetting smaller crops in Russia, Ukraine and India. The January Grain Market Report forecasts production in the five major exporting countries up nearly 43 mmt from last year which, combined with decreases elsewhere, will bring the total world wheat production increase to only 34 mmt, assuming normal weather conditions.

EU wheat production is forecast at 104 mmt, similar to its 2002/03 near-record harvest. With U.S. winter wheat planting up an estimated 6%, the IGC forecasts total U.S. production at 60 mmt, up 36% from last year, although lack of moisture in the Great Plains and early indications that spring wheat planting could be down from last year may limit U.S. production gains in 2003/04. The IGC forecasts Canadian production at 25 mmt, up nearly 60% from the 2002/03 harvest.

The weakening of the El Niño weather phenomenon should improve conditions in Australia, and lead to increased sowings during the April - May planting season, boosting production to a forecasted 23 mmt, according to the report. Argentina’s production is projected to reach 15.5 mmt in 2003/04, up from 13 mmt in 2002/03.

Meanwhile, the IGC sees some decreases in production from recent bumper crops in Ukraine, Russia and India. The IGC reports that the overall condition of Russia’s crop is worse than last year as December frosts damaged the winter wheat crop in areas that were not protected by snow.

Russian wheat production is forecast at 42 mmt, down 17% from 2002/03. A similar weather situation is reported in Ukraine, but some recent snowfalls are protecting the crop from further frost damage. The IGC pegs Ukraine’s 2003/04 production at 19 mmt, down from 21 mmt in 2002/03. India’s crop is forecast at 70.5 mmt, slightly lower than last year’s 72 mmt harvest, due to reduced irrigation supplies and a poor monsoon.