Grain Market Gleanings

NDSU Crop, Livestock Price Projections
Short and long-term agricultural planning price projections for livestock and northern-grown crops are available from the North Dakota State University Extension Service, online at www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu (click on the link “Plotting a Course 2003”) or call to request the free publication (“Plotting a Course 2003”, bulletin EC-1090) by calling (701) 231-7882. The estimated short-term planning prices can be used as a guide in setting price expectations for production this year, and for preparing annual enterprise budgets and annual whole-farm cash flow projections. According to the publication, the historical price for spring wheat (97-01) is $2.98; the price projection for 03-04 is $3.40; and the price projection from 04-08 is $3.66.

Experiment with Grain Marketing Strategies, Risk Free
Commodity Challenge, www.commoditychallenge.com , is an online grain marketing simulator that gives producers practical experience managing grain marketing price risk with futures, options, and cash sales in a realistic virtual environment, without any real financial risk.  Participants can even test their marketing skills against others, with standings updated daily. Participation is free; all you need is access to the Internet. There’s even a livestock version. Commodity Challenge was developed by the Montana Grain Growers Association’s MarketManager program and the Montana Cooperative Extension Service. Other cooperators in its development included the Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers and the University of Minnesota.

Guide to Marketing on the Web
USDA has published the guide “How to Direct Market Farm Products on the Internet,” available online at www.ams.usda.gov/tmd/MSB/msb.htm or contact Errol Bragg at USDA for a printed copy, (202) 720 8317, e-mail: Errol.Bragg@usda.gov . The guide provides basic information to farm direct marketers who are interested in selling their products online or using a web site to publicize their farm or products. According to USDA, of the estimated 168 million Internet users 16 years of age and older in the U.S., approximately half say they shop online.

Technicals Vs. Fundamentals
Market experts often toss around the terms “fundamentals” and “technicals.”  What’s the difference? Fundamentals refers to basic economic (actual or anticipated supply and demand) factors used to evaluate and predict grain prices. Technicals refers a variety of chart-following techniques and chart patterns used to track market price direction.

At a series of meetings held earlier this winter, sponsored in part by the Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers and the Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion Council, University of Minnesota farm business management specialist Bret Oelke gave an overview of market trend indicators using technical or chart-based price signals.

Oelke says that technical indicators often follow seasonal price patterns and help remove the emotion from marketing decisions – once a price moves to a certain level on the chart, the grain is sold. An excellent index of free daily, weekly, monthly, and historical grain pricing charts can be found online at http://futures.tradingcharts.com . Click on the link “free commodity charts.”