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Issue 23 |
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Prairie Grains is the official publication of the Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers, North Dakota Grain Growers Association, South Dakota Wheat, Inc. and the Minnesota Barley Growers Assocation. |
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Copyright Prairie |
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Seasonal crop price patterns can help guide grain sales
Crop prices tend to follow seasonal patterns. For example, according to a North Dakota State University study of hard red spring wheat prices (14% protein, to-arrive cash prices at Mpls/Duluth) from 1978-1992,
prices bottomed during August and peaked during April-June, on average. From harvest lows, the price increased 3.9% by November and 6.4% by April, on average. Prices were the least variable in November
and the most variable in June. The following is a look at seasonal price movements from NDSU for hard red spring wheat, corn, soybeans, and feed barley. The charts include a seasonal price average for these
crops, as well as high and low seasonal price patterns during the time period of the study.
Hard Red Spring Wheat, 14% Protein
Corn
Soybeans
Feed Barley
Even though the information was conducted in the early 1990s, before "Freedom to Farm," the seasonal price patterns are still applicable today since they are dependent upon the annual nature of the crop cycle, according to George Flaskerud, NDSU extension crops economist. Historically, seasonal price patterns can be predictable, although price movements will vary depending on supply and demand fundamentals. For a more detailed look, order the NDSU bulletin "Seasonal Price Patterns for Crops," available from NDSU county extension offices or through the NDSU Extension Distribution Center, ph. 701-231-7882.
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