Sunflowers Need to Bid for Acreage

U.S. oil sunflower acreage declined from last year, and demand for NuSun oil will have the crushing industry bidding for acreage earlier and more aggressively.  “The oil sunflower industry needs a half million more acres, and I don’t know where they’re going to get it from,” says NDSU Extension economist George Flaskerud. Daily updated oil and confection sunflower prices can be found online: www.sunflowernsa.com/daily-market-news.

Oil Sunflower Acres Down 7% U.S. & World Stocks to Remain Tight Higher Prices Also Supported by Soybeans

Oil Sunflower	2005	2006
Harvested (Thousand acres)	2,032	1,514
Yield (lb/a)	1,564	1,181
Beginning Stocks (tmt)	55	350
Production (tmt)	1,442	811
Imports (tmt)	13	25
Supply (tmt)	1,510	1,186
Crush (tmt)	597	665
Other Domestic (tmt)	563	445
Use (tmt)	1,160	1,110
Ending Stocks (tmt)	350	76
Stocks/Use	33.2%	6.8%

Source: National Sunflower Assn. (1/15/07)
New crop contracts at $16.10/cwt (7/6/07)
2% price premium for each 1% oil above 40
Delivery and AOG options available

CANOLA

Continued Canola Price Strength Expected
A higher soybean price would exasperate canola, another oilseed crop that needs acres next year to feed demand.  U.S. acreage in 2007 was projected up 12% in the U.S. and 17% in Canada.  Record supply is projected for Canada, but also record exports (fed in part by biofuels in Europe) and increased crush, resulting in reduced carryout and higher seasonal average price.  World production is up, but so is the crush, and ending stocks are expected to tighten.  See canola prices (Velva, N.D. and Altona, Man.) online at www.northerncanola.com. 

LENTILS

More Price Potential for Lentils Than Peas
Planted acreage in the U.S. was down 5% for field peas and 29% for lentils.  Conversely, Canadian pea acreage increased by 16%, and lentils by 5%. Carryover for lentils looks to be especially tight, giving lentils more price potential than field peas. County loan rates, a list of buyers, and other marketing information related to peas and lentils can be found online at www.northernpulse.com – click on the “Growers” link.

FLAX

Price Turnaround for Flax
What a change from last year: from ample supplies and a price near loan that discouraged flax planting this year, which in combination with reduced stocks (Canada is expected to reduce its ending stocks by 50%) and a higher price for the oilseed complex in general has flax prices rebounding into the $8 range. “Look for continued strong prices, maybe not $10+ but more likely $8-$9 into spring,” says NDSU Extension economist George Flaskerud. Consult with your local elevator about pricing/storage recommendations. See link to elevators and flax buyers at www.ameriflax.com – Click on ‘Producers and Handlers’ and see Flaxseed Trade and Handlers’ Database.