Will Expected Grain Price Returns Justify Storage Costs?

Assuming you have the bin space, why not store grain until prices improve?

There’s nothing wrong with storing grain, if doing so is expected to be profitable.  Indeed, short-term storage after harvest can help producers escape seasonal price lows and quality discounts that are usually greatest at harvest.

However, be realistic in your price expectations.  Realize seasonal market tendencies. Follow the “carry” in the futures market, which is the difference in price between nearby futures and prices into next year. 

If the price spread is small, or declines into far-away months, the futures market is signaling that there is little incentive to store grain. If the price in far-away months is significantly higher than nearby prices, then you have more incentive to store grain. Be sure to also consider change in basis, as discussed on pages 46-47.

Storage Decisions Prior to Harvest
Cumulative Variable Storage Costs Per Month on the Farm Relevant to Storage Decisions Prior to Harvest (these include in/out charges)

Months in Storage	Wheat ($/bu)	Corn ($/bu)	Barley ($/bu)	Oats ($/bu)	Soybean ($/bu)	NuSun ($/cwt)	Canola ($/cwt)
1	0.104	0.099	0.084	0.081	0.172	0.301	0.262
2	0.124	0.112	0.094	0.089	0.212	0.369	0.325
3	0.144	0.125	0.104	0.098	0.251	0.436	0.388
4	0.164	0.138	0.114	0.106	0.290	0.504	0.450
5	0.184	0.151	0.123	0.114	0.330	0.571	0.513
6	0.204	0.164	0.133	0.122	0.369	0.639	0.576
7	0.224	0.177	0.143	0.130	0.408	0.706	0.638
8	0.244	0.190	0.153	0.139	0.447	0.774	0.701
9	0.263	0.203	0.163	0.147	0.487	0.841	0.764
10	0.283	0.216	0.172	0.155	0.526	0.908	0.826
11	0.303	0.229	0.182	0.163	0.565	0.976	0.889
12	0.323	0.242	0.192	0.172	0.604	1.043	0.952

Storage Decisions After the Grain is in the Bin
Cumulative Variable Storage Costs Per Month on the Farm Relevant to
Storage Decisions After the Grain is in the Bin

Months in Storage	Wheat ($/bu)	Corn ($/bu)	Barley ($/bu)	Oats ($/bu)	Soybean ($/bu)	NuSun ($/cwt)	Canola ($/cwt)
1	0.020	0.013	0.010	0.008	0.039	0.067	0.063
2	0.040	0.026	0.020	0.016	0.079	0.135	0.125
3	0.060	0.039	0.029	0.025	0.118	0.202	0.188
4	0.080	0.052	0.039	0.033	0.157	0.270	0.251
5	0.100	0.065	0.049	0.041	0.196	0.337	0.314
6	0.120	0.078	0.059	0.049	0.236	0.405	0.376
7	0.140	0.091	0.069	0.058	0.275	0.472	0.439
8	0.160	0.104	0.079	0.066	0.314	0.540	0.502
9	0.180	0.117	0.088	0.074	0.353	0.607	0.564
10	0.200	0.130	0.098	0.082	0.393	0.675	0.627
11	0.219	0.143	0.108	0.091	0.432	0.742	0.690
12	0.239	0.156	0.118	0.099	0.471	0.809	0.752

Estimating storage costs
NDSU extension crops economist George Flaskerud outlines estimated variable costs for storing grain on-farm in tables 1 and 2. On-farm storage costs in these tables are for existing facilities only. 

 For example, storing wheat on the farm for about three months would cost about 14.4 cents per bushel. To justify that storage cost, a producer would have to receive at least an additional 15 cents per bushel in November, compared to the selling price for delivery off the combine in August. 

In/out charges (costs of moving grain in and out of farm storage) are important to the storage decision only before the grain is in the bin. Once the grain is in the bin, the in/out cost is not important to the storage decision, since part of it has already been incurred and the remainder will be incurred regardless of whether the grain is hauled out immediately or later, Flaskerud points out.

The first chart with in/out charges includes the costs of operating and repairing equipment, handling shrink, insurance, management, labor and trucking. The in/out charge would be considered as a cost during the first month of storage only.

How much storage costs change from one month to the next depends partly on crop prices. For this analysis, the costs were based on the average harvest price forecast as of mid-July of $3.15 wheat; $1.90 corn; $1.55 barley; $1.30 oats; $6.20 soybeans; $10.65 NuSun; and $9.90 canola. How much storage costs change from one month to the next also depends on interest rates.

The first storage cost table also includes a cost per month for interest on investment in the grain in storage and storage shrink. The cost for shrink is very small for properly designed storage facilities.

Interest on investment was based on a bank loan annual interest rate of 6%. An alternative rate of interest would be applicable for those producers with no debt. It would be the potential rate of return from an investment of the proceeds of a grain sale.

The second table indicates storage cost estimates once the grain is in the bin. These storage costs are different because the in/out charges can be ignored.

Cumulative variable monthly on-farm storage costs that are relevant to storage decisions made after the grain is in the bin include only the cost per month for interest on investment on the grain in storage and for storage shrink.

Suppose that a decision is being made in November whether to sell wheat for immediate delivery or to store another five months. Using table 2, the relevant total storage charge to consider in this decision would be about 10 cents per bushel.  You would need to evaluate whether the market offers potential to give you a return on that storage cost in five months.