A Look at Who’s Been Buying Your Wheat

U.S. wheat exports in 2004/05 (ending May 31; the 2005/06 wheat marketing year began June 1) were estimated at 28.58 million metric ton, about 2 MMT higher than initial forecasts.

The top ten importing countries for all U.S. wheat in 2004/05 were: 1) Japan, 3.1 MMT; 2) Mexico, 2.7 MMT; 3) Nigeria, 2.5 MMT; 4) China, 2 MMT; 5) Egypt, 1.9 MMT; 6) Philippines, 1.79 MMT; 7) South Korea, 1.3 MMT; 8) Taiwan, 971 TMT; 9) Italy, 762 TMT; and 10) Colombia, 743 TMT.

The following graphs, with data courtesy of the North Dakota Wheat Commission, illustrate the top buyers of hard red spring wheat and durum in 2004/05 and the past five years, as well as top buyers by global region over the past decade.

The U.S. exported $6.62 billion worth of wheat and wheat products in federal fiscal year 2004, which was a 5-year high, according to the USDA-ERS. However, it appears that the U.S. will face strong export competition in 2005/06, including Canada with a higher quality crop expected to be on the way compared to last year; the European Union, which has large stocks and strong production on hand; and the Former Soviet Union, where good production is expected to increase Black Sea exports.

Top 10 Markets for U.S. HRS & Durum (2004-05 Mil. Bu.)

HRS   Japan 51.4 Philippines 37.5 China 34.9 Taiwan 21.6 Italy 19.4 Spain 16.3 Venezuela 14.9 South Korea 14.0 Mexico 9.5 Thailand 7.4 DURUM   Algeria 10.3 Italy 7.9 Venezuela 2.6 Nigeria 1.5 Rep. S Africa 0.8 Costa Rica 0.8 Dom. Republic 0.6 Cuba 0.6 Chile 0.4 Cyprus 0.2

Top 10 Markets for U.S. HRS & Durum Five-Year Average (MY 00-01 to 04-05 Mil. Bu.)

HRS   Japan 48.3 Philippines 27.0 Taiwan 22.3 Italy 18.6 South Korea 13.8 China 12.8 Venezuela 10.3 Spain 9.6 Thailand 6.7 Dom. Republic 5.9 DURUM   Italy 13.7 Algeria 8.8 Venezuela 2.4 Tunisia 2.2 Netherlands 0.9 Morocco 0.9 Nigeria 0.8 Dom. Republic 0.8 Costa Rica 0.8 Belgium 0.5

	95/96	96/97	97/98	98/99	99/00	00/01	01/02	02/03	03/04	04/05
U.S. Spring Wheat Export Trends by Global Region 1995-2005
Europe	20.5	27.9	30.7	42.7	38	37.1	35.8	37.6	55	48.4
Africa/Mid East	53.3	46	20.9	19	14	17.8	13	15.7	16	18.9
C. & S. America	87.5	81.3	56	49.3	40	44.5	43.9	65.8	58	68.7
Asia	166.1	137.5	128.2	137.1	129.6	126.9	128.7	136.2	136	172.1
Leading Asian Markets for Spring Wheat
Japan	48.3	45.5	50.3	49.5	48.2	45.3	49.3	47.2	48.3	51.4
Philippines	49.4	42.5	32.1	38.5	37.1	23.2	25.7	31.3	17.4	37.5
Korea	13.4	15.7	13.8	12.3	12.4	14.5	12.8	13.3	14.3	14
Taiwan	17.9	18.2	20.9	19.4	21	24.1	21.1	21.4	23.1	21.6
Thailand	8	4.4	5	6.1	5.3	8	6	5.3	7.1	7.4
Leading European Markets for Spring Wheat
Italy	4.4	7.8	10.7	12.7	15.5	16.8	16.1	15.7	24.8	19.4
Spain	2.5	2	7.9	9.9	8	4.2	6.5	5.9	1.4	16.3
UK	1.5	2.4	3.9	5	3.7	3.3	3.6	3.9	5.9	2.7
Belgium	5.1	4	5.6	11.3	5.7	6.5	6	3.3	2	5.6
Leading W Hemisphere Export Markets for Spring Wheat
Venezuela	14.5	15.3	11.9	12	5.7	6.5	5.1	10.9	14.4	14.9
Dom. Republic	6.6	6.7	8.1	8.4	7	5.6	6.2	6	5	6.7
Costa Rica	4.4	3.3	4.3	2.7	3	2.8	3	3.9	3.6	3.3
Guatemala	4.3	3.2	0.9	0.4	1.5	1.1	1.3	5.3	1.1	1.4
Mexico	5	8.7	0.8	0.08	0.03	2	3.3	6	7.4	9.5
U.S. Durum Export Trends
Europe	8.3	12.9	19.2	15.2	13.9	17.5	28.7	11.1	14	8
Africa/Mid East	17.2	16.4	20.7	14.7	19.9	21	9.5	10.9	15	12.8
C. & S. America	7.5	6.2	5.2	6.6	2.6	2.5	3.6	4.8	9	5.3

Minneapolis Dec Wheat Futures Between January 1 and Expiration

Year	Low		High		Range
1995	345	03/02/1995	524	12/18/1995	179
1996	377	11/05/1996	634	05/09/1996	257
1997	351	01/31/1997	479	04/21/1997	128
1998	311	08/04/1998	409	03/11/1998	98
1999	303	12/17/1999	382	01/08/1999	79
2000	303	08/14/2000	366	02/10/2000	64
2001	290	12/11/2001	366	01/11/2001	76
2002	305	05/22/2002	521	09/09/2002	216
2003	336	06/27/2003	414	08/18/2003	78
2004	327	11/30/2004	452	04/02/2004	125
Avg	325		455		130

With a high of 393, the 300-330 area at harvest is likely.

December Corn futures Prices Between January 1 and Expiration

Year	Low		High		Range
1995	248	01/03/1995	345	12/19/1995	97
1996	258	11/05/1996	389	07/12/1996	131
1997	228	07/07/1997	298	03/20/1997	71
1998	197	09/01/1998	290	03/11/1998	93
1999	180	12/20/1999	251	03/30/1999	71
2000	185	08/11/2000	273	05/03/2000	88
2001	198	11/29/2001	262	01/02/2001	64
2002	215	04/12/2002	296	09/09/2002	81
2003	209	07/25/2003	255	12/12/2003	46
2004	191	12/01/2004	336	04/08/2004	145
Avg	211		300

Low under 200 looks likely.

November Soybeans Futures Prices Between January 1 and Expiration

Year	Low		High		Range
1995	573	02/01/1995	690	11/02/1995	117
1996	660	11/01/1996	825	07/12/1996	165
1997	577	07/07/1997	750	03/10/1997	173
1998	509	09/01/1998	685	02/09/1998	176
1999	405	07/09/1999	575	01/08/1999	170
2000	446	07/17/2000	595	05/03/2000	149
2001	418	04/23/2001	538	07/17/2001	121
2002	430	01/03/2002	591	09/11/2002	161
2003	502	01/14/2003	802	10/30/2003	300
2004	502	11/08/2004	788	03/23/2004	286
Avg	502		684

Low around 500 is possible.

These tables indicate high and low prices, and the price range between the highs and lows, over the last 10 years for Mpls Dec wheat futures, CBOT Dec corn futures, and CBOT Nov soybean futures. The price ranges and time periods for highs and lows may be considered in establishing marketing plan selling price and time objectives.