Issue 31
Marketing Guide 2000
 

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Prairie Grains is the official publication of the Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers, North Dakota Grain Growers Association, South Dakota Wheat, Inc. and the Minnesota Barley Growers Association.

Copyright
Prairie Grains Marketing Guide
2000

Seasonal price movement May 1 to Oct 1

In 13 of the last 20 years (1980-1999) or 65% of the time, Minneapolis September wheat futures declined an average of 42 cents per bushel from May 1 to August 1 (see chart). The Sept. wheat contract moved higher an average of 43 cents in 7 years, or 35% of the time.

From May 1 to October 1 in the last 20 years (1980-1999), November soybean futures at the CBoT declined 14 of those years (70% of the time), an average of 83 cents per bushel.  In only 6 of those 14 years (or 30% of the time) did the market move higher, by an average of 88 cents.

Dec. corn futures at the CboT also declined 14 out of the 20 years (70%) an average of 40 cents per bushel. In only 6 years out of the last 20 (30%) did the market move higher from May 1 to Oct. 1, an average of 37 cents.

Moral of the story, says Ed Usset, a private grain market analysis who also works with the University of Minnesota: Get something sold in the spring, "if nothing more than to have balance in your marketing," he says.

November Soybeans at the CBOT

Year

1-May

1-Oct

Change

1980

6.45

8.12

1.67

1981

8.27

6.46

(1.81)

1982

6.78

5.29

(1.50)

1983

6.78

8.58

1.80

1984

7.13

5.90

(1.24)

1985

6.06

5.14

(0.93)

1986

5.24

4.88

(0.36)

1987

5.34

5.45

0.11

1988

7.14

8.17

1.04

1989

7.24

5.77

(1.47)

1990

6.55

6.05

(0.51)

1991

6.09

5.89

(0.20)

1992

6.05

5.33

(0.72)

1993

5.96

6.18

0.22

1994

6.28

5.38

(0.90)

1995

6.06

6.37

0.32

1996

7.58

7.49

(0.08)

1997

6.96

6.21

(0.76)

1998

6.17

5.15

(1.02)

1999

5.00

4.81

(0.19)

Avg.

6.46

6.13

(0.33)

 14 years (70%) the market declined, an average of 83 cents per bushel.
   6 years (30%) the market moved higher, an average of 88 cents.

 

  December Corn at the CBOT

Year

1-May

1-Oct

Change

1980

2.95

3.49

0.54

1981

3.77

2.87

(0.90)

1982

2.93

2.20

(0.73)

1983

3.03

3.53

0.50

1984

3.04

2.78

(0.26)

1985

2.64

2.26

(0.39)

1986

2.04

1.77

(0.27)

1987

1.87

1.84

(0.03)

1988

2.27

2.95

0.68

1989

2.64

2.39

(0.26)

1990

2.70

2.29

(0.42)

1991

2.53

2.54

0.01

1992

2.53

2.12

(0.41)

1993

2.43

2.43

0.00

1994

2.58

2.14

(0.44)

1995

2.63

3.11

0.48

1996

3.33

2.90

(0.44)

1997

2.76

2.56

(0.20)

1998

2.62

2.05

(0.58)

1999

2.31

2.05

(0.26)

Avg

2.68

2.51

(0.17)

     14 years (70%) the market declined, an average of 40 cents per bushel.
       6 years (30%) the market moved higher, an average of 37 cents.

 

September Wheat at the MGE

Year

1-May

1-Aug

Change

1980

4.13

4.68

0.55

1981

4.65

4.21

(0.44)

1982

4.05

3.88

(0.17)

1983

4.00

4.08

0.09

1984

3.90

3.96

0.06

1985

3.63

3.19

(0.44)

1986

2.92

2.68

(0.25)

1987

2.87

2.60

(0.27)

1988

3.13

4.12

0.99

1989

4.19

3.93

(0.26)

1990

3.61

2.81

(0.80)

1991

2.95

2.88

(0.07)

1992

3.55

3.06

(0.49)

1993

2.99

3.15

0.15

1994

3.34

3.34

(0.00)

1995

3.65

4.73

1.08

1996

5.93

4.70

(1.23)

1997

4.39

3.92

(0.48)

1998

3.61

3.08

(0.53)

1999

3.33

3.44

0.11

Avg

3.74

3.62

(0.12)

     13 years (65%) the market declined, an average of 42 cents per bushel.
     7 years (35%) the market moved higher, an average of 43 cents.