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Issue 30 |
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Prairie Grains is the official publication of the Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers, North Dakota Grain Growers Association, South Dakota Wheat, Inc. and the Minnesota Barley Growers Association. |
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A glimpse into the future of agriculture Cyber seeds, smart roads, and sensors that signal breakdowns all may become commonplace on 21st century farms, according to ag futurist By Tracy Sayler Cyber seeds? Smart roads? Sensors that warn of impending machinery breakdowns? These mind-boggling innovations are all technologically feasible
today. Although still not economically feasible for mainstream use, these and other technologies will be some day. And they'll change the face of agriculture.
One megabyte of computer memory that cost over $1 million a few decades ago can be bought for a few dollars today, says Catlett, giving an example of the general rule-of-thumb that has dictated the evolution of
computer technology to date: Computer capacity will double every 18 months, with price going down by half. He says computer technology will continue to evolve and grow smarter.
For example, global positioning satellites that help navigate some cars and tractors today will someday lead to vehicles that drive themselves. Such
advancements in transportation technology will also advance the movement of agricultural commodities, allowing identity-preserved grain and livestock products to move anywhere in the world inexpensively.
DNA chips—"living computers"—now enable the analysis of 100 different compounds in a person's bloodstream instantaneously. This and other advancements in health technology will continue to move medicine from a treatment-based medium to prevention-based emphasis. "You will not be a patient of medicine anymore, you will be a customer," he says. Such individualized management will also filter down to livestock—feeding and health regimens administered according to the needs of every animal in the herd. Catlett says some equipment manufacturers have already developed "smart parts" with sensors that can signal the operator of a car or tractor when and where a part is wearing down. "We now have a part that can tell the system, 'hey, in another hour, I'm quitting.' The parts guy can be there out in the field, before the breakdown occurs." Crops production management this century could be revolutionized by advancements in sensing technologies, Catlatt says. "Vertical cavity surface emitting lasers,"—lasers the size of a spec of dust, which some call "pepper lasers" or "laser dust,"—operate by pulling static electricity from the air. Some day, seed coated with these microscopic lasers—"cyber seeds"—may be planted, allowing for precise observation of crop development and application of needed pest treatments. Catlett says he knows a crop producer near Yuma, AZ who uses a system very close to this today, created with assistance from a space scientist. Precise coordinates in the system allow the producer to apply pesticides to the square inch. "He's applying only what's needed to get the job done. On a total of 163 acres, he sprayed 13 acres. He manages holistically; he wants to make sure the (area wildlife and surrounding environment) remains vibrant. He doesn't want to apply any more than he has to." Catlett says the producer is probably recouping the fixed costs of such a system with savings in variable costs—reduced pesticide treatments. Of course, this technology is not economically viable to most in agriculture. But some day it may be. Catlett points out that on-farm computers and yield monitors would have been considered a pipe dream to most farmers in the 1970s, but these technologies are commonplace today. Innovations affecting agriculture will extend to the grocery stores too. Freshness dating on foods will be replaced by labels or packaging that change color when food spoils or becomes unfit to eat. The coupon-saving bar-code tags that many food shoppers use in grocery stores today will evolve into a means of pricing and promoting foods according to consumer preferences. Catlett says that producers who take advantage of these emerging trends—and determining what consumers want—will be positioned to command a better price for their commodities. |
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So says Lowell Catlett, professor of ag economics and ag business at New Mexico State University. A
nationally-known speaker and ag futurist, Catlett works with Fortune 500 companies to help plan for emerging new markets and changes that may be a glimmer on the horizon today, but commonplace years from now.