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Global Wheat Consumption at Record Level – But
so is Production
These charts and graphics courtesy of the North Dakota Wheat Commission pretty much sum up the wheat market: while global demand remains high, there’s plenty of supply to go around, keeping
prices in check.
Global wheat consumption is at a record level, but so is production.
A weaker U.S. dollar makes American wheat more competitive on the export market. But larger wheat crops are projected in 2004/05 in the European Union and Russia, with smaller increases for Argentina and Brazil. With the exception of high-protein wheat, current stocks are plentiful enough to generally limit wheat futures market upside.
Bottom line is that the wheat price is being steered by a supply-driven bear market, with many market analysts predicting wheat rallies limited to a 20 to 25-cent range until next spring,
barring the unexpected.
The NDWC has more wheat stats online at www.ndwheat.com . Click on the link “wheat information” then “market information.” U.S. Wheat Associates also has updated wheat supply/demand stats online at www.uswheat.org . Click on the link “market information.” USDS-ERS is another good source. Go to www.ers.usda.gov , click on “key topics” then “crops” and then “wheat.” Also check out www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/Wheat .
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U.S. Hard Red Spring Wheat Export Trends by Global Region 1994-2004
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Million Bushels
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94/95
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95/96
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96/97
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97/98
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98/99
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99/00
|
00/01
|
01/02
|
02/03
|
03/04
|
|
Europe
|
19.5
|
20.5
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27.9
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30.7
|
42.7
|
38
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37.1
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35.8
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37.6
|
55
|
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Africa/Mid East
|
40.3
|
53.3
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46
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20.9
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19
|
14
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17.8
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13
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15.7
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16
|
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C. & S. America
|
51.4
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87.5
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81.3
|
56
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49.3
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40
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44.5
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43.9
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65.8
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58
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Asia
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174.8
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166.1
|
137.5
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128.2
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137.1
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129.6
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126.9
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128.7
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136.2
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136
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Leading Asian Markets
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Million Bushels
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94/95
|
95/96
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96/97
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97/98
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98/99
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99/00
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00/01
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01/02
|
02/03
|
03/04
|
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Japan
|
58
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48.3
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45.5
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50.3
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49.5
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48.2
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45.3
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49.3
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47.2
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48.3
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Philippines
|
44
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49.4
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42.5
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32.1
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38.5
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37.1
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23.2
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25.7
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31.3
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17.4
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Korea
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14.1
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13.4
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15.7
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13.8
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12.3
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12.4
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14.5
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12.8
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13.3
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14.3
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Taiwan
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17.7
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17.9
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18.2
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20.9
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19.4
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21
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24.1
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21.1
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21.4
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23.1
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Thailand
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6.1
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8
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4.4
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5
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6.1
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5.3
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8
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6
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5.3
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7.1
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Leading European Markets
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Million Bushels
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94/95
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95/96
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96/97
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97/98
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98/99
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99/00
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00/01
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01/02
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02/03
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03/04
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Italy
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9.8
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4.4
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7.8
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10.7
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12.7
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15.5
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16.8
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16.1
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15.7
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24.8
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Spain
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0
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2.5
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2
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7.9
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9.9
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8
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4.2
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6.5
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5.9
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1.4
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UK
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0
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1.5
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2.4
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3.9
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5
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3.7
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3.3
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3.6
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3.9
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5.9
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Belgium
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4.4
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5.1
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4
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5.6
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11.3
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5.7
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6.5
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6
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3.3
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2
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Leading W Hemisphere Export Markets
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Million Bushels
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94/95
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95/96
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96/97
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97/98
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98/99
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99/00
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00/01
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01/02
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02/03
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03/04
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Venezuela
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16.1
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14.5
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15.3
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11.9
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12
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5.7
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6.5
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5.1
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10.9
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14.4
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Dom. Republic
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3
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6.6
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6.7
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8.1
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8.4
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7
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5.6
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6.2
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6
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5
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Costa Rica
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4.4
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4.4
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3.3
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4.3
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2.7
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3
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2.8
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3
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3.9
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3.6
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Guatemala
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5.2
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4.3
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3.2
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0.9
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0.4
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1.5
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1.1
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1.3
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5.3
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1.1
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Mexico
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0
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5
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8.7
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0.8
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0.08
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0.03
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2
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3.3
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6
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7.4
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U.S. Durum Export Trends
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|
Million Bushels
|
94/95
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95/96
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96/97
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97/98
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98/99
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99/00
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00/01
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01/02
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02/03
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03/04
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Europe
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4.8
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8.3
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12.9
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19.2
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15.2
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13.9
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17.5
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28.7
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11.1
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14
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Africa/Mid East
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17.3
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17.2
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16.4
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20.7
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14.7
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19.9
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21
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9.5
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10.9
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15
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C. & S. America
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7.4
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7.5
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6.2
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5.2
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6.6
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2.6
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2.5
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3.6
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4.8
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9
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TOP 10 MARKETS FOR U.S. HRS & DURUM 2003-04
(Million Bushels)
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DURUM
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HRS
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Italy
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12.5
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Japan
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48.2
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Algeria
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10.1
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Italy
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24.8
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Venezuela
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6.1
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Taiwan
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23.1
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Morocco
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2.8
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China
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18.2
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Nigeria
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1.4
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Philippines
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17.4
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Switzerland
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1.0
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Spain
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15.0
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Egypt
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1.0
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Venezuela
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14.4
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Costa Rica
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0.9
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Korea
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14.3
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Dom. Republic
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0.8
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Mexico
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7.4
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Rep. S Africa
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0.5
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Thailand
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7.0
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TOP 10 MARKETS FOR U.S. HRS & DURUM 2003-04
Five-Year Average (MY99-00 to MY03-04)
(Million Bushels)
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DURUM
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HRS
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Italy
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14.1
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Japan
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47.6
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Algeria
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9.6
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Philippines
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