2004 HRS Crop: High Yields of Mostly #1 Grade, But Below-Average Protein

The 2004 season was a tremendous production year for U.S. hard red spring wheat as farmers attained record yields under an unusually cool growing season. Final production is 6% above 2003 on slightly reduced planted area.

High test weights and low levels of damaged kernels put 80% of the U.S. hard red spring wheat crop (ND, SD, MT, MN) in a No. 1 grade (Dark Northern Spring and Northern Spring), nearly the same as last year. The high grade profile on the crop is supporting flour extraction similar to the five-year average.

The trade-off to the record yields and cool summer temperatures was an average protein content of 13.8%, notably lower than last year. The share of the crop that between 13 and 15% protein content was virtually unchanged from 2003, but the proportion above 15% is smaller. Functional dough quality, as measured by the farinograph, indicates lower mixing stability compared to last year and the five-year average. Vitreous kernel counts are slightly lower.

Quality of the region’s HRS crop is summarized in the 2004 Regional Crop Quality Report, based on 766 HRS samples (ND-379, SD-127, MT-160, MN-100) collected by the ND Agricultural Statistics Service from growers and grain elevators in the four-state region. 

Quality analysis was conducted by the North Dakota State University Cereal Science Department. One-third of the total samples were analyzed for grade and other physical kernel characteristics. Quality tests for milling, flour evaluation, physical dough and bread properties were conducted on composite samples representing crop reporting areas.

Exceptionally High Grade Durum Quality Produced in ‘04
The durum crop in North Dakota and Montana, which account for about 80% of the nation’s annual durum production, was nearly equal in size and average grade to 2003. Buyers should be pleased with its exceptionally high grade profile, high test weight and improved extraction. Sharply higher yields more than offset the 12% reduction in planted area that resulted from the cold, wet spring as the crop ultimately benefited from a cool growing season.

The ’04 crop averages a No. 1 Hard Amber Durum, with nearly 70% projected to meet this standard, up from 59% in 2003. Average test weight is at a historically high level of 61.7 pounds per bushel, 2 pounds above average. Thousand kernel weights are also at a recent high. While frost and sprout damage occurred in isolated areas due to the protracted growing season, the regional crop has very low levels of damaged kernels, 0.3%, equal to 2003’s exceptional crop.

With the cool summer and higher yields, average protein content is down a point from 2003 at 13.4%. The most noticeable dip is in the northwest. Distributions indicate 90% of the crop is above a 75% level of vitreousness and 80% exceeds a 350-second falling number, but the averages are lower than 2003. Milling performance is notably improved with higher extractions and lower ash levels, likely driven by high test weights and minimal damage. Average semolina mixing strength, as measured by the mixograph, is equal to last year and average, with a classification of 6 on a scale of 1 to 8. Pasta cooked quality is lower, exhibiting reduced firmness and a lower color score.

Communicating ’04 U.S. Wheat Quality with Buyers
Funding and support for the U.S. hard red spring wheat and durum regional quality surveys is provided by U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) and state wheat commissions in the spring wheat and durum growing region.

USW compiles a full crop quality report annually that summarizes quality of all six wheat classes produced in the U.S. (HRS and durum, along with Hard Red Winter, Hard White, Soft White, and Soft Red Winter). The 2004 report is available from the U.S. Wheat Associates website, www.uswheat.org.

The annual report offers extensive information available on the quality characteristics of the most recent American wheat crop for current and future U.S. wheat customers. USW then holds seminars around the world after the wheat harvest, presenting the latest crop quality information and working with customers to explain and evaluate the value of U.S. wheat. Buyers are encouraged to use contract specifications that best meet their quality and value needs.

Brian Sorenson, technical director of the Northern Crops Institute in Fargo, presented information about 2004 spring wheat and durum quality in seminars in Japan, Thailand, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Korea. All are key quality-conscious buyers.

Sorenson said buyers were generally concerned about the shortage of high protein wheat produced in the U.S. as well as Canada.  A smaller supply means greater demand and thus a higher price for high protein wheat “Many are looking at the need to change their specifications to afford spring wheat,” he says.  “There’s about a $70 per ton difference between 13% and 15% pro; that’s substantial.”

He did point out, however, that the U.S. HRS crop is mostly high grade with high test weight, which equates to good milling yield.  The severe scab and DON in the region’s wheat crop in the 1990’s still brings questions now.  “It isn’t an issue with this year’s crop, but the questions still come up.”  There was little concern about dockage, as most U.S. wheat export companies in Pacific Northwest ports have cleaning processes in place to bring dockage levels down to Asian specifications, typically 0.3% or lower.

“There were a lot of questions about China, and what they might do, since purchases by the Chinese can impact HRS price and availability,” says Sorenson.  Speculating about Chinese grain purchases is always difficult, however, and China remains a wild card to 2004-05 wheat trade.

Prudential grains analyst Shawn McCambridge noted in Nov/Dec issue of Trader Source magazine (www.trader-source.com) that the Chinese are very adept at trading the agricultural markets, moving in and out of positions.

“They are not going to show their hand, so it puts a bit of uncertainty into the market,” McCambridge said. “If they come out and say, ‘we don’t need anything,’ that usually means ‘we’re looking.’  If they say they’re looking to export, it means they’ll import.  If prices go up they may trade out of them.”  But prices would react if China did indeed come into the market and buy a significant amount of wheat, he said.

More Crop Quality Details Online
Download the complete 2004 Hard Red Spring Wheat and Durum Crop Quality Reports (PDF format) from the North Dakota Wheat Commission’s web site:  www.ndwheat.com .

2004 HRS Regional Test Weight Average

95% of the region’s HRS crop in 2004 had a test weight 58 lb/bu or higher