Association Perspectives

Soviet grain embargo.  Canadian Wheat Board monopoly.  Scab and karnal bunt.  All important issues for the wheat industry over the years. But it can be argued that the low-carb trend fueled by the Atkins diet is the most significant challenge to ever face the U.S. grain industry.

Bread bashing is at an all time high.  Pasta, potatoes, and other carbohydrates that have been mainstays in America’s kitchens and cafes are also being shunned by many hoping that a high-protein, no/low carb diet will be their ticket to losing weight.

The low-carb diet trend is clearly affecting consumers.  According to one survey conducted for the Grocery Manufacturers of America by Phil Lempert on his SupermarketGuru.com, 74% of those surveyed said they were following a low-carb diet, and 60% said they were on the diet to lose weight.

A National Bread Summit was even organized by the National Bread Leadership Council recently to discuss the problem.  About 40% of Americans are eating less bread, according to discussions at the summit. Further, sales of processed bread have fallen by an average of 10% nationally, and of bagels by up to 15%, over the past five years. The biggest decline is in the sale of hamburger and hot dog buns to fast food restaurants, down 20% over the past five years. Only sales of expensive “premium” loaves, and bread made by fashionable “micro-bakeries” have risen.

With domestic food use accounting for over one third of every bushel grown in the U.S., the low carb craze is every American grain farmer’s concern, just as it is for the grain foods bakers and sellers. “Here we have about the most healthy thing in the diet, and it’s being treated like it’s poison,” said Joshua Sosland, executive editor of Milling and Baking News, in a news article following the summit.

As we see it, there are three facets to addressing this issue:

Meet market demand for low-carb products
Gluten (a wheat-based protein) or soy flour are two common ingredients used to replace wheat flour in low-carb products. According to an ABC News report last spring, over 800 products making low or no-carb claims were introduced in the U.S. in the past two and a half years, and many more are on the way to fill the aisles that many grocery stores now devote to these products. “Low carb” remains a nebulous term, by the way, with no legal definition or standard set for food labeling. 

Some may argue that providing low-carb products merely fuels this misaligned trend.  However, it can also be argued that meeting the demands of the low-carb crowd is better than losing them entirely. With a considerable price mark-up, there may even be profit potential with low-carb products, a premium that may exist even for farmer-owned processors and value-added niches.

Education and promotion
Let’s not forget the fact that the majority of people in this country remain loyal fans of fresh bread, cereal, noodles, pancakes, and other grain foods, including millions of carb-crazy kids who are key influencers of family food purchases. The grains industry and nutrition leaders must step up efforts in a long-term campaign to educate the public about the positive benefits of grain foods. Consumers need to be reminded of the sound science and nutrition that supports grain foods in our diets, and the fact that grain foods remain an important part of the federal government’s dietary guidelines.

Wheat growers are doing their part with wheat-checkoff funded education and promotion efforts. One example is a good fact-filled article by the North Dakota Wheat Commission recently which pointed out that Europeans eat a lot of carbs but still remain fit (see article “57 million Italians Can’t Be Wrong” page 21).  Wheat growers also get incredible bang for their checkoff buck through the Wheat Foods Council. The WFC budget was $1.6 million in 2002-03, stressed further because of drought in wheat states.  The WFC budget is a sliver of what is spent by beef and pork, and less than what even the prune, walnut, catfish, and watermelon folks spend on product promotion and education.  Still, the WFC has incredible presence at the national level, using research and statistics to promote the positive benefits of all grain-foods, focusing especially on media, health and nutrition leaders, and policy makers. 

Time
There are a lot of unknowns about the long-term health effects of a low carb diet. A recent ABC News report points out that many physicians and nutritionists still have concerns that high-protein, low-carbohydrate diets may have adverse long-term health effects, and that high fat content may lead to an increased risk of heart disease. “In my experience, unless you’re willing to throw out decades of research, you cannot ignore that diets chronically high in saturated fats are linked to heart disease,” said Dr. Keith-Thomas Ayoob of Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York. Ayoob is also a spokesman for the American Dietetic Association.

Over time, people on low-carb diets may tire of other risks and side effects as well, which may include sleeplessness, constipation, headaches, bad breath and irritability. And over time, they may tire of depriving themselves of breads and other grain foods they love, moving on to other strategies for losing weight. As the editorial cartoon by the WFC points out, time has cured other dietary fads; we hope the same applies here.

Association Perspectives represents the views of the Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers, North Dakota Grain Growers Association, Montana Grain Growers Association, and South Dakota Wheat Inc.