Wheat Production in the Developing World: Current Status and Future Prospects

By Joel K. Ransom, NDSU Extension agronomist – cereal crops joel.ransom@ndsu.nodak.edu

In September, 2002, I assumed the position of extension agronomist for cereal crops at North Dakota State University.  I’m looking forward to assisting in bringing innovations from the University and other institutions to area grain farms, to help them improve their productivity and profitability.

Before coming to NDSU, I lived with my family in Latin America, Africa and South Asia while working for the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) as an agronomist.  During this 20-year-period, I worked with national research scientists and farmers in trying to increase the production and productivity of wheat and corn in some of the world’s poorest countries, many with a per capita income of less than a dollar a day.   In this article I will share with you some observations on wheat production and wheat production technologies in selected regions of the world where I have worked. 

I will describe wheat production in the developing world in rather broad general terms, but bear in mind that there is a wide range of socio-economic and physical environments where wheat is grown in the developing world, so general descriptions about wheat production can be misleading. It is a bit like trying to describe the highly variable rainfall in the Northern Plains during the 2002 growing season, using a single average figure.  

There’s no questioning the significance of wheat in the sustenance of humanity. It is the third most important crop in terms of production globally, following rice and corn. For millions of people, wheat is the primary source of carbohydrates in their diet, and for many, a significant source of protein as well.

Perhaps the most striking difference between wheat production in the developing world and that in North America is the size of the farm and the relative importance of labor.  For example, in Asia the average farm that produces wheat is less than three acres. In most cases this small parcel of land is the primary source of food and income for the family, so farming tends to be intensive.

Double cropping is practiced where possible. In the major wheat producing region of South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal) where irrigation is viable, wheat is grown immediately after the harvest of rice.  In the small scale farms of Africa and Asia, the wheat crop is often seeded, weeded and harvested by hand.  Animal traction is still widely used to plow the land, though custom plowing with tractors is becoming more common in regions where farms have not become too fragmented.  The daily farm wage rate in many countries rarely exceeds $2.  Even with this low labor rate most farm work is done by family members. 

From Green Revolution to Soil Conservation
The most notable increases in wheat production in the developing world occurred in the late 1960s during what is now called the Green Revolution. These increases were attributable to the use of new varieties that were resistant to disease and lodging, and to the use of higher inputs of fertilizer and irrigation water.  The Green Revolution enabled South Asia to go from having periods of severe famine to self sufficiency, and even surpluses.

Norman Borlaug is often referred to as “the father of the Green Revolution,” and was a key figure in the establishment and management of CIMMYT, the institute with which I previously worked. As a result of his efforts in developing new varieties, and working with governments in south Asia to change agricultural policy and to facilitate the distribution of these new higher yielding varieties, Borlaug was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970.

Advances in wheat production systems in South Asia more recently have been in the area of resource conservation. Conservation tillage techniques are gaining widespread adoption. Large areas of the rice-wheat growing areas lend themselves to growing wheat with zero tillage after the rice crop.  This practice has grown dramatically in the last few years with the development of zero-till drills adapted to small tractors (35 hp) that are locally available.

These drills are currently made in small, family-owned shops.  Although these drills are very inexpensive by U.S. and Canadian standards (about $700 per unit), they are still beyond the reach of most small-scale farmers. An effective custom planting industry has sprung up to meet their needs.

Zero tillage saves immense amounts of diesel fuel since there is no plowing and allows farmers to plant earlier; late planting was a key factor for poor yields in the past.  In most cases, zero tillage can be accomplished without the use of herbicides, as the flooded conditions of the preceding rice crop kills weed seeds that germinate during rice cultivation.

Interestingly, in the rice-wheat systems in growing areas where water from the rice crop is slow to drain, directly broadcasting wheat seed on the soil surface when the soil is still saturated is a technique that works surprisingly well most seasons, and doesn’t require any special equipment.

Advances in Wheat Productivity
Wheat productivity in the developing world varies considerably from region to region. In Asia, yields have increased at an impressive rate with the adoption of new varieties and production techniques. As an example, wheat yield growth in India over the past decade averaged 2.2% per year, outstripping the growth of wheat yields during the same period in the U.S. (1.7%). 

In North Africa, however, the growth in wheat yield has been flat. And in Ethiopia—the country with the largest number of wheat farmers in sub-Saharan Africa—gains have been negative, partially due to the constraints caused by reoccurring drought.

There are bright spots in Africa, however. In fact, the most impressive wheat crop I have ever seen was in Zimbabwe in southern Africa.  Using irrigation and high inputs during the cool winter season, the farmer grew a triple dwarf wheat variety that at maturity was only knee high.  However, the wheat spikes were so uniformly thick, it gave the impression that one could lay on top of the crop and be supported.  

Global demand for wheat during the past decade has risen by about 5.6 million metric tons per year.  Future new demand will likely be in developing countries, and will be associated with rising population, along with shifts in the diet with rising incomes and urbanization. It will no doubt be a challenge for these regions of the world to meet this growing demand without increased trade and better adoption of production technologies. 

Just as in North America, rural communities in the developing world can no longer offer a secure livelihood for all of the new generation.  There has been a tremendous migration of young people from the farms to the cities.  Cities in the developing world are growing at an astounding rate, and in most cases the rate of growth in the cities has far outstripped the rate of infrastructure development.  Large areas of these cities are without running water, sewage systems and electricity.

The challenge of creating opportunities for the youth to remain on the farm, for farms to be a secure source of income and food, and to stem the tide of migration from the countryside to the cities, is and will be an immense challenge for the foreseeable future.  New technologies and fairer markets will be key to meeting this challenge in the developing world, just as it is here in North America.