Another Hot Summer?

UND weather expert anticipates drought conditions maypersist over 40% of North Dakota through most of the summer.

By Tracy Sayler

First, the usual preface in talking about weather – like they say about stocks, past performance isn’t necessarily indicative of future trends.  Despite what the folks at the Farmer’s Almanac might tell you, it’s difficult to forecast long-term weather with certainty.

Still, trends can’t be ignored, and weather technology today gives weather watchers better accuracy and more assurance in predicting trends.  Leon Osborne, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of North Dakota, and president of Meridian Environmental Technology, Inc., sees more ‘extremes’ in weather patterns – ie, too wet, too dry, warmer than usual – for the foreseeable future.  And 2007 could see a repeat of last summer’s weather, which would be all the more troubling for those with less subsoil moisture.

The dry weather pattern in the Northern Plains eased somewhat last fall, but snowfall thus far has been below normal, and conditions in many places are drier than they were last year at this time, Osborne says.

El Nino is contributing to a weather pattern that has been enhancing dry conditions across the Northern Plains, and wetter conditions across the Southeastern U.S.

Many weather watchers expect a warmer climate to continue for the next few decades, following a trend of global warming.  “The bottom line is that global warming is and will continue to occur, human influence or not,” says Osborne.

Indeed, in separate prognostications, British climate scientists predict that a resurgent El Nino climate trend combined with higher levels of greenhouse gases could make 2007 the world’s hottest year on record.  There is a 60% chance that the average global temperature for 2007 will match or break the record, according to Britain’s Meteorological Office.

Osborne says hotter summers are likely to become the rule, not the exception, with shorter and warmer winters, wetter autumns and drier springs, and greater levels of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods. For agriculture, it means challenges and opportunities, and a migration of cropping patterns northward as well as changes in cropping practices and management.

Late spring into summer, from around May to late June, current weather models suggest near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation (but moisture below the ten year average) in the eastern 2/3 of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.

From late June to September, weather models suggest above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation across the Upper Midwest.  Western N.D. and eastern Montana could see dry conditions and much above normal temperatures. He expects drought conditions to persist over 40% of North Dakota through most of the summer.

Osborne believes crop producers in the Northern Plains will start the season with adequate moisture.  But he is concerned that if higher temperatures and less moisture settle in later in the growing season, finishing off crops may be challenging in some areas. “We might not see a repeat of extreme drought like last summer, but with limited subsoil moisture, this year we’ll have less of a buffer against limited precipitation.”