Could Global Warming Push Wheat North - to Alaska?

Are there amber waves of grain in Alaska’s future? Given the current rate of global warming, the answer might be yes, writes George Bryson, in a recent article for the Anchorage Daily News.

Bryson cites an upcoming report by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center that predicts higher temperatures in North America will make it difficult to grow some varieties of wheat in the Lower 48 states and other areas of the world by 2050, unless new strains of wheat are developed to withstand warmer temperatures.

By the same measure, however, the more northerly latitudes of Canada and Alaska with suitable soil conditions could be ideal. Global warming could shift the current northern limit for growing wheat in North America from 55 degrees north (about the latitude of Edmonton, Alberta) to 65 degrees north (about the latitude of Fairbanks). Such calculations assume that Alaska’s wheat would be spring-sown and harvested before winter, not winter wheat.

The new study isn’t the first to reach that conclusion.  Authors of a 2002 study commissioned by the United Nations predicted a similar wheat-growing climate for Alaska and Canada by 2080, using a different climate change model.

Larry DeVilbiss, director of the state Division of Agriculture, points out that with warmer temperatures and longer growing seasons, some farmers in Alaska are now growing beets, parsnips and turnips, which before were attempted only in household gardens. DeVilbiss himself even tried growing wheat last summer and had success with a dwarf variety.

In 2001, Alaska was home to about 580 farms and ranches with agricultural sales greater than $1,000, according to state records. The top cash crop that year was 10,500 tons of potatoes, but farmers also grew 27,000 tons of hay and 8,800 cubic meters of oats and barley.

University of Alaska Fairbanks professor Glenn Juday points out in the article by Bryson that while climate warming could some day remove one obstacle to large-scale farming in Alaska, there are others, such as a lack of agricultural infrastructure to process and carry crops to market.