Foresight for Successful Cropping Systems:

Crop Selection for 2002

There is a Logical Process That You Can Use to Choose Which Crop to Grow on Each Field

By Zachary Fore, U of M Extension Croping Systems Specialist,
forex002@umn.edu

What crops are you going to plant in 2002? Do you have it figured out yet for each field?  How should you determine which crop to grow on each field? There is a logical process that you can use to help you choose which crop to grow on each field.  Here are some key steps in the crop selection process:

•  Know your production costs

•  Know your yield potential

•  Know what price you can expect to get

•  Do price/yield scenarios to understand your risk

•  Understand the rotation effect

Production Costs, Yield Potential, and Price. 
Table 1 shows Northeast ND 2002 projected crop budgets. The numbers in Table 1 are based on average yields in the area for the seven-year period from 1993-1999, with the low and high yield years excluded.  The prices are best estimates, using the loan rate as a floor.  Costs are average actual costs in the area assuming rented land at $47.50/A.  The numbers given in the table do not take into account government payments.  You will have to add in your own estimates of what you expect government payments to be.

Table 1. Northeast North Dakota 2002 Projected Crop Budgets Crop Yield bu/a Price (unit) $ Gross return/a $ Costs /a $ Net return/a Spring Wheat 34 bu 3.30 112 138 -26 Durum Wheat 26 bu 3.30 86 134 -48 Barley -Malt 57 bu 1.98 113 138 -25 Corn 90 bu 1.72 155 213 -58 Sunflowers - Oil 1320 lb 0.093 123 145 -22 Sunflowers - Confectionery 1170 lb 0.126 147 159 -12 Soybeans 28 bu 4.82 135. 137 -2 Dry Beans 1300 lb 0.14 182 181 1 Oats 59 bu 0.99 58 122 -64 Flax 20 bu 5.30 106 122 -16 Canola 1400 lb 0.096 134 156 -22 Yellow Mustard 1100 lb 0.106 117 113 4 Field Peas 40 bu 3.00 120 124 -4 Buckwheat 1000 lb 0.108 108 106 2 Alfalfa - Estab. 2.3T 55 127 113 14

These are average numbers for the area, and your numbers will differ.  However, what these numbers tell us is that without AMTA and other government payments, on the average we are losing money on most crops. Of the 15 crops listed, 11 crops give a negative net return averaging -$27/A, and 4 crops give a positive net return averaging $5/A.

You can find projected crop budgets for other regions of North Dakota online at www.ext.nodak.edu/extpubs/ecguides.htm/.  Compiled by the North Dakota State University Extension Service, these budgets are useful for estimating expenses and income potential for various crops grown in 2002.

Understanding the Rotation Effect and Risk  
Two important factors in crop selection are economics and agronomics.  You want to select crops that maximize profit potential and minimize your risk.  Dr. Michael Peel, former NDSU extension small grains agronomist, has done an excellent job of presenting the agronomics of crop rotations in NDSU Extension Bulletin EB 48 “Crop Rotations for Increased Productivity.” The bulletin is available on the web at: www.ext.nodak.edu/extpubs/plantsci/crops/eb48-1.htm

The “rotation effect” refers to the fact that the order crops are grown in affects their yield potential. Figure 1 shows the yield benefit of growing spring wheat after various crops compared to continuous spring wheat.  Table 2 shows the rotation effect with various crops.  Data in Figure 1 and Table 2 were gathered from numerous research studies.  NDSU Extension Bulletin EB 48 also contains crop rotation yield data.

Table 2. Rotation effects with various crops. Crop Previous Crop Yld. Effect % Inc. * Barley Spring Wheat 6 Barley Soybeans 16 Barley Flax 5 Canola Spring Wheat 38 Canola Barley 19 Canola Flax 5 Corn Soybeans 14 Soybeans Corn 7 Sunflowers Spring Wheat 17 Sunflowers Sugarbeets 20 * Compared to continuous cropping with the same crop.

The rotation effect is not entirely understood, but many factors are thought to contribute, including: disease suppression, optimized water utilization, weed and insect management, and soil fertility.  Good crop rotations reduce your production risk, while poor crop rotations increase your production risk.  Good crop rotations can also help minimize risk due to environmental factors, reduce soil erosion problems, and distribute work load over the season.

One way to help you estimate risk is to construct price-yield scenario tables. Constructing such a table will quickly give you an understanding of what happens if price goes up or down, and/or if production goes up or down.  Below (Table 3) is an example using soybeans.  “Best Guess” yield and price represents the most likely yield and price you would expect to achieve.  In this case, the best guess price is also the lowest price shown on the table, since it is close to the estimated loan support price.

Figure 1. Effect of previous crop on spring wheat yields compared to continuous spring wheat - % yield increase.

Selecting higher yield scenarios may be possible using good crop rotations along with other variables such as soil type, fertility, and pest management.

Table 1 indicates that it is difficult to be profitable if you are average.  Thus, you have to strive to be better than average:

•  Get higher than average yields

•  Get higher than average prices through improved marketing

•  Have lower than average costs

I have studied many years of data which indicate that for most farmers in the Northern Plains region, the biggest opportunity or most attainable by far is to get higher yields.  A distant second is to get higher prices through improved marketing, and last is to reduce costs. Obviously, improving all three will give you the best chance of profitability, but put the most effort where the potential benefits are highest on your farm.