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Planning for the future can be a very frustrating
process but one that typically pays high dividends. For most farm managers, developing realistic commodity price expectations is one of the most difficult and complex tasks of the planning process. To ease the
burden of forecasting planning prices, the NDSU Extension Service has prepared a summary of projected short-and long-term planning prices.The estimated short-term planning prices should be used as a guide in setting
price expectations for 2010 production. These planning prices can be used for preparing annual enterprise budgets and annual whole-farm cash flow projections.
The short-term planning prices should not be used for planning capital purchases or expansion alternatives that extend beyond the
next production year. Unfortunately, the use of short-term planning prices to make long-term decisions is common. This practice is not recommended because current supply/demand conditions rarely continue for long
periods of time and are a poor indicator of future trends.
The long-term planning prices are valuable for evaluating alternative plans that affect the farm business for more than one year.
Both individual yearly price forecasts and long-term average prices are presented. The long-term planning prices were derived from annual average price forecasts made by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research
Institute (FAPRI). The U.S. price estimates reported in the 2009 Baseline Briefing Paper, November 2009, were adjusted using historical relationships to reflect North Dakota farm gate prices.
Historical prices are reported for reference. This information can be a valuable reminder of past price fluctuations and trends.
Prices for 2009 are averages to date.
The historical crop prices were obtained from “North Dakota Agricultural Statistics 2009,” North Dakota Agricultural Statistics
Service publication No. 78.
For more crops marketing information links - www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/aginfo/cropmkt/websites/sites.htm
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