USDA Reports Grain Producers Should Watch

Every day USDA releases an agricultural report.  From Crop Progress and Conditions, to Egg Products to Potato Stocks, new numbers come out everyday.  To make things even more difficult, different organizations within USDA release different reports.  The Economic Research Service releases the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, while the National Ag Statistics Service releases the Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings and the Foreign Agricultural Service releases the Weekly Export Sales report.  As a grain farmer, there are only a few important reports that we need to watch.

One report that is very easy to understand is the USDA Weekly Crop Progress and Conditions report.  As the title implies, this report is released once a week during the growing season. On Monday at 3 pm CST, USDA gives us updates on planting, development and harvest progress, and more importantly, crop conditions. 

This report becomes important in mid-April when USDA begins releasing winter wheat crop condition reports. It’s our first “official” glimpse of how good or bad the winter wheat crop looks. We hear horror reports about the winter wheat conditions all winter, and finally in April we have some numbers to back up the yield estimates. 

The key numbers in the weekly crop progress report is the Good/Excellent rating, and how that compares to last year and last week.  Did the rains last week help conditions, or did the hot and dry weather cause conditions to decline?   These questions are answered on a weekly basis during the growing season and watched diligently by grain traders. 

Another important report to follow is the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released around the 10th of each month.  This report is usually just called the Supply/Demand report, or sometimes the Crop Production Report.  Within this report USDA gives us estimates of U.S. and World production and demand for major commodities. The key numbers in this report are the ending stocks estimates, both for the U.S. and for the world. The U.S. numbers are given in million bushels, but keep in mind that the world numbers are given in million metric tons. 

It’s easy to make comparison between the years, and to see if stocks are projected to increase or decrease. The “granddaddy” of All Supply/Demand reports occurs in August.  This is the first objective USDA estimate of U.S. corn and soybean production of the season.  They use average yields for prior reports, but in August, USDA surveys fields and takes their best guess at U.S. crop production.  If there was ever a day to close limit up or down, it’s the August S/D report. 

The final report to watch carefully is the Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report.  The acreage numbers are the key numbers to watch in this report.  This report is released in mid-January, and around March 31, June 30 and Sept 30. USDA makes their first U.S. spring crop acreage estimate on March 31, but those numbers can change dramatically by June 30. 

Even if you don’t have time to watch all these reports, it is important to know the release dates.  Major price moves can occur on report days. If you need to sell grain, look at buying a short-term put option to cover you through the report.  If you feel you have too much grain forward contracted, maybe you want to purchase a short-term call option before the June 30 acreage report. 

These reports are all available on the Internet (see links below), or if you would like them e-mailed to you, sign up at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu . Select only the reports in which you are interested, however, or you will receive USDA reports for commodities that aren’t exactly Northern Plains mainstays, like peanuts and tobacco.

USDA 2004 Crop Progress and Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletins
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/field/weather/2004/

Link to Calendar of NASS Reports
www.usda.gov/nass/pubs/rptscal.htm

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report
www.usda.gov/oce/waob/wasde/wasde.htm

USDA Online Briefing Rooms

In-depth statistics and reports on various topics and commodities, including corn, soybeans, and wheat www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/

2004 USDA Crop Reports

Grab a pen and write the following potentially market-moving USDA crop reports on your 2004 calendar.

April 8: Crop production and supply & demand estimates

May 12: Crop production and supply & demand estimates

June 11: Crop production and supply & demand estimates

June 30: Acreage report, Grain stocks report

July 12: Crop production and supply & demand estimates

Aug. 12: Crop production and supply & demand estimates

Sept. 10: Crop production and supply & demand estimates

Sept. 30: Grain stocks report, Small grains summary

Oct. 12: Crop production and supply & demand estimates

Nov. 12: Crop production and supply &demand estimates

Dec. 10: Crop production and supply & demand estimates