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BRAZIL AGMIN CUTS WHEAT, CORN FORECASTS AFTER FROST DAMAGE
SAO PAULO, Aug 24 (Reuters) - According to Reuters, Brazil's
government lowered its 1999/2000 crop estimates for wheat by 42 percent and corn by 33 percent due to the combined effects of drought and frosts in southern areas, the Agriculture Ministry said on Thursday.
In its sixth forecast for Brazil's various grains crops, the ministry's research agency Conab reduced its figure for wheat production to 1.53 million tonnes
from last month's estimate of 2.63 million tonnes. Brazil produced 2.40 million tonnes of wheat in 1998/99. "The strong drought in northern Parana, Sao Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul states cut output sharply. To
make matter worse, a series of cold fronts brought devastating frosts last month to key grower Parana, Brazil's leading producer state for wheat and corn.
"During the month of July with its cold weather and frosts, most of the plants were in a phase close to maturation and highly susceptible to low
temperatures," Conab said, also citing the protracted drought as a factor slicing into output.
But the losses suffered during the smaller winter crop will only worsen the country's corn shortfall this season, which is expected to surpass three million
tonnes.
FALL TREATMENT CAN REDUCE CANADA THISTLE
With Canada thistle rapidly becoming North Dakota's number one noxious weed, late summer
and fall provide an opportunity for effective control. Using the right combination of tillage and herbicide improves control and may reduce the amount of herbicide required, according to a North Dakota State
University weed scientist. Richard Zollinger, extension weed specialist at NDSU, says a key to successful control of Canada thistle is to understand how it grows and use that knowledge to advantage.
Over 90 percent of Canada thistle's root system is below cultivation depth. The only way to effectively control the root system to apply herbicides when maximum
translocation of the chemical to the underground roots will occur. This happens in late summer or fall after day length is less than 14 hours, says Zollinger.
Long summer days with over 16 hours of daylight induce Canada thistle plants in the rosette stage to bolt and produce flowers. Thistle plants that emerge after
there is less than 14 hours of sunlight will not bolt but stay in the rosette stage.
At this stage the plants pump more food reserves down to the root system. Applying mobile herbicides like 2,4-D, Banvel, Tordon, Roundup and Curtail/Stinger at
this time also results in greater translocation of herbicide to the roots and subsequently greater root kill, Zollinger says.
Research in Canada showed that thistle treated at the rosette stage had 88 percent fewer shoots present a year after treatment as plants treated in the bud
stage with twice as much herbicide.
Roundup applied to Canada thistle in the rosette state at half the rate recommended for the bud stage resulted in 98 percent control for two years after
treatment, Zollinger says.
NDSU Agriculture Communication
Source: Richard Zollinger, (701) 231-8157
Editor: Gary Moran, (701) 231-7865
MARKETING THE Y2K CROP FOCUS OF SEPTEMBER 13 SEMINAR
Red Lake Falls, MN—After producers are through checking out the metal at
the big farm show in West Fargo, N.D., they're encouraged to check the mettle of their grain selling plans, at the seminar "Marketing The Y2K Crop: Strategies For Pricing Your Grain," to be held Wednesday, September
13, at the Kelly Inn, Main Avenue and I-29, in Fargo.
Seminar speakers are Ray Grabanski, president of Progressive Ag Marketing, Fargo; Mike Lockhart, a Ulen, Minn. farmer and marketing club facilitator; and George
Flaskerud, North Dakota State University extension crops economist.
Grabanski will focus on the market outlook for wheat, corn and soybeans, and outline strategies to get the most out of this year's markets. He'll also touch on
using the Internet to improve profits.
From an easy-to-follow producer's perspective, Lockhart will reveal strategies that many farmers are discussing and implementing in the marketing groups that he
leads.
Flaskerud will explain a handy tool that will enable growers to estimate expected net prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans for any given months in the future,
thus helping to plan grain sales.
Producers will be able to review post-harvest selling strategies for wheat and barley, and fine-tune pre-harvest selling plans for corn, soybeans, and other
late-season crops. They'll also be able to learn more about key factors affecting grain sell/store decisions, including loan deficiency payments (LDPs), the 60-day Posted County Price (PCP) lock, local basis, and
the limit for marketing loan gains.
Registration for the seminar is at 4:30 p.m. Supper will be at 7:30 p.m., with seminar wrap-up by 8 p.m. The seminar and supper are free. Sponsors of the event
are the Minnesota Association of Wheat Growers, North Dakota Grain Growers Association, and the Risk Management Education program of the U.S Department of Agriculture's Risk Management Agency. For more information,
contact the MAWG at 1-800-242-6118.
Contacts:
David Torgerson, MAWG Executive Director, ph. 218-253-4311
Lance Hagen, NDGGA Executive Director, ph. 701-222-2216
INSECTS TO WATCH FOR IN THE FINAL FILLING DAYS BEFORE CORN AND SOYBEAN HARVEST
Bean leaf beetles
Leaf feeding is very
common.
I have not been in any fields with high Levels of defoliation or pod feeding. Pod clipping and pod feeding are the main issue at this time. Loss from pod clipping is obvious. Feeding on the pods can open the seed up to fungal pathogens including Phomopsis spp. and Alternaria. It is worth the time to check for bean leaf beetle feeding.
The threshold is 10% pod feeding. Iowa State University has a developed a threshold based on beetle numbers and insecticide cost. For these
thresholds, see Marlin Rice's recent article at http://www.ent.iastate.edu/ipm/icm/2000/8-21-2000/lblroof.html
Corn harvest may be closer than you think
This is entirely unrelated to pest management but pay close attention to corn moistures for silage
harvest. I have talked to several people last week who were taking early moisture tests for silage.
Some fields are at seventy percent moisture or less in spite of being barely dented. The milk line rule may not work well this year.
And now for something completely different
John Eidenshink, Pioneer agronomist emailed a digital image of caterpillars infesting corn ears. They
were evidently quite numerous in the field.
Without a specimen to key out, they appear to be western bean cutworm. This is a known but infrequent corn pest in this part of the world.
Western bean cutworms are related to other Noctuid cutworms such as armyworm and corn earworm. The larvae are tan, similar to armyworm in size and shape, have
no body stripes and a dark area with white stripes behind the head.
Unlike other many other cutworms western bean cutworm tends to feed on the tassel and ear of corn. As the name implies, they also feed on beans. Control is
ineffective once the larvae are inside the ear.
Bruce Potter
IPM Specialist SW Minnesota
University of Minnesota Extension Service
Ph: 507.752.7372
Fax: 507.752.7374
E-mail:bpotter@umn.edu
RECENT RAINS RALLY CROPS IN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA
Summary information from the National Agricultural Summary released on
August 22 reports that both corn and soybeans are further along in development this year than last and that recent, scattered showers will help in soybean filling.
Corn:
Seventy-seven percent of the crop was at or beyond the dough stage and 40 percent was dented. Development remained slightly ahead of last year,
when 76 percent was at or beyond the dough stage and 36 percent was dented. Both stages were more than 1 week ahead of their 5-year averages of 60 and 22 percent, respectively. Above-normal temperatures stimulated
crop development in the central and southern Great Plains.
Eighteen percent entered the dough stage in Colorado, and 16 percent reached the dent stage in Kansas. In Texas, 59 percent was mature and 49 percent was
harvested. In the Corn Belt, fields rapidly developed, in spite of cooler-than-normal temperatures in many areas. In Iowa, 20 percent entered the dough stage and 22 percent reached the dent stage during the week.
Across the northern Corn Belt, from Wisconsin to South Dakota, more than 20 percent of the acreage entered the dough stage.NCorn dented progressed about 20 percentage points in Indiana, Nebraska, and Tennessee.
Conditions rebounded in Minnesota and North Dakota, as rain relieved moisture shortages and mild temperatures reduced moisture requirements. Rain maintained moisture supplies and boosted crop conditions in parts of
the Corn Belt, but moisture supplies diminished and conditions slightly deteriorated in most areas.
Soybeans:
Ninety-one percent of the acreage was setting pods, slightly ahead of last year's 88-percent pace and more than 1 week ahead of the
80-percent normal for this date. Acreage dropping leaves, at 3 percent, was also ahead of last year and the average for this date. Below-normal temperatures limited development in the northern Great Plains, eastern
Corn Belt, and mid-Atlantic Coastal Plains. However, fields rapidly began setting pods in Michigan, Ohio, and North Carolina. Above-normal temperatures accelerated development in the lower Missouri and Mississippi
Valleys. In Arkansas and Missouri, pod setting advanced 18 and 12 percentage points, respectively. In Louisiana and Mississippi, 23 and 18 percent, respectively, was dropping leaves. In Kansas, 17 percent was
dropping leaves, more than 2 weeks ahead of normal. Conditions deteriorated in the central Great Plains and southern Corn Belt due to moisture shortages and excessive heat. Scattered rains and mild temperatures
limited deterioration in the northern and eastern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains. Timely rains boosted conditions in Minnesota and North Dakota."
Dr. Denise A. McWilliams
Extension Crop Production Specialist-NDSU/UM
North Dakota State University
cell phone: 701-793-5820
telephone: 701-231-8160
fax: 701-231-8474
E-mail: dmcwilli@ndsuext.nodak.edu
Web Site: http://www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/aginfo/rowcrops/index.html
MANY FARM OPERATORS COULD REACH GOVERNMENT CROP PAYMENT LIMIT THIS FALL
Minnesota crop producers need to be aware of this year's
$75,000 government payment limit for corn, soybeans, and wheat. A large number of Minnesota farm operators could reach that limit this fall, says Kent Thiesse, Blue Earth County educator with the University of
Minnesota Extension Service.
The $75,000 limit is on the total amount of loan deficiency payments (LDP) and gain on Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) marketing loans. The gain on the CCC
loans is the difference between the county loan rate and the posted county price(PCP) on the day the grain is released from under loan at the county Farm Service Agency (FSA) office.
"Current depressed prices are likely to result in very high LDPs and marketing loan gains on corn and soybeans after harvest this fall," says Thiesse.
Current PCPs in Minnesota have been running 45 to 50 cents per bushel below the county corn loan rates and 90 cents to a dollar per bushel below soybean loan
rates. That means a farm operator could potentially collect 50 cents per bushel for corn and a dollar per bushel for soybeans on the entire 2000 crop. The producer must choose between collecting the LDP or putting
the crop under a nine-month CCC loan, notes Thiesse. Both alternatives can't be used on the same bushels of grain.
The "threshold level" to reach the $75,000 payment limit depends on both the PCP and this year's crop yield, since every bushel produced is eligible
for either a LDP or to go under CCC loan. Thiesse cites an example of a farm operator with 1,035 acres in crops, half in corn that yields 180 bushels per acre and half in soybeans that yield 55 bushels per acre.
This operator would reach the $75,000 payment limit with LDPs of 50 cents per bushel for corn and a dollar per bushel for soybeans. It would take 1,250 acres for this operator to reach the $75,000 limit if yields
were 150 bushels per acre for corn and 45 bushels per acre for soybeans. Farm operators exceeding the $75,000 payment limit still have an option to take advantage of the CCC loan program and low PCP prices at county
FSA offices, says Thiesse. A producer who reaches the $75,000 limit can no longer use the LDP and must put the grain under a nine-month CCC loan. If the grain is released at a PCP below the county loan rate, the
producer can
use commodity certificates to release the grain under loan at the PCP. No paper certificates are actually issued. The process is electronic and allows producers
who have reached the $75,000 limit to take advantage of the marketing gain resulting from low PCPs. Farmers who use this option must use the daily PCP and not the 60-day PCP "lock-in" procedure available
on most CCC grain loans.
"The commodity certificate procedures are quite detailed and complicated," says Thiesse. "Farm operators who expect to reach the $75,000 payment
limit this fall should contact their FSA office before harvest to learn the details of the commodity certificate program. It is extremely important to understand all aspects of the LDP and CCC loan programs to
maximize grain marketing income. Most county FSA officials are very willing to work with farm operators to design the best strategies for the 2000 crop."
Source: Kent Thiesse, (507) 389-8141
Editor: Joseph Kurtz, (612) 625-3168, jk@umn.edu
SUPPLY AND DEMAND REPORT HERALDS PRICE VOLATILITY
By George Flaskerud, Extension Crops Economist NDSU Extension Service
Historically tight supplies of wheat outside of the U.S. will likely bring increased price volatility later in the marketing year. Ending stocks of wheat
outside the U.S. were projected by USDA in the August Supply and Demand Report to be the lowest in two decades. You have to go back to 1981 to find lower ending stocks for foreign producers as a group.
Increased volatility is more likely than a sustained move to substantially higher wheat prices unless there is a significant production shortfall someplace in
the world. USDA's export projections are not much different than exports for the last two years. Ending stocks in the U.S. were projected to be about 41 percent of total use, about the same as in the July report.
Market conditions suggest that the Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP) should be captured if it has not been already. Although higher wheat prices may materialize
because of threats to growing conditions for 2001 wheat crops, it is not likely that prices will move lower than observed during August. In effect, the risk of much lower prices is minimal.
Most of the changes noted in the USDA report, relative to the report in July, took place in production. Hard red winter production was reduced 3 million bushels
to 883 million, soft red winter was increased by 4 million to 471 million, white winter was increased 5 million to 240 million, other spring wheat was increased 28 million to 554 million, and durum was reduced 13
million to 115 million bushels. Hard red spring wheat production was pegged at 499 million bushels versus 448 million a year ago.
The corn crop will be huge. A crop of 10.369 billion bushels is expected, 300 million over the previous record. An average yield of 141.9 bushels per acre was
projected. Ending stocks as a percentage of total use is expected to be 24.4 percent versus 19 percent a year ago.
USDA continues to expand its export projections for the 2000 corn crop primarily because of a smaller crop in China. The crop there was projected to be 5.7
percent smaller than July's projection, and 10.2 percent smaller than a year ago.
Although China's crop is expected to shrink, China is still exporting, but exporting less. Their exports are projected to be 157 million bushels, down from 354
million this past year.
Taking the LDP for corn at harvest continues to look like a good plan since cash prices should bottom out at that time. USDA is projecting a seasonal average
price of $1.45 to $1.85 per bushel, a nickel lower than last month's projection, and compares to the average for this past marketing year of $1.80.
The soybean crop is also expected to be huge. It was projected to be 2.989 billion bushels, 248 million larger than the previous record. An average yield of
40.7 bushels per acre was projected, slightly below the record.
The soybean stock-to-use ratio is certainly not attractive (16.5 percent) but less foreboding than a month ago (17.4 percent). It is expected to be 10.3 percent
for the 1999-2000 marketing year.
USDA continues to expand crush and export projections, at least partly because of China. The Chinese crop is expected to be 5 percent smaller than the estimate
last month. Although smaller than projected last month, it is still expected to be 5 percent larger than last year's crop. So, while soybean imports by China are expected to be up from a month ago, they are expected
to be about 20 percent below the 330 million they imported last year.
The South American situation is also lending support to our exports. Strong domestic use is soaking up their bigger crop and limiting supplies available for
export.
Taking the LDP for soybeans at harvest also looks like a good plan. Prices are so low they are much more likely to go up after harvest than down. USDA is
projecting a seasonal average price of $3.90 to $4.80 per bushel, about the same as last month's projection, and compares to the average for this past marketing year of $4.65.
NDSU Agriculture Communication
Source: George Flaskerud (701) 231-7377
Editor: Tom Jirik (701) 231-9629
A GIVE AND TAKE MARKETING STRATEGY
Take what they'll give you." It's an old sports analogy, but it certainly could apply to
today's wheat market as well. Finish the article published in the Prairie Grains 2000-01 Marketing Guide: http://www.smallgrains.org/springwh/MGuide00/take/take.htm
USDA RELEASES U.S. EXPORT SALES REPORTS
http://www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
USDA RELEASES U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE UPDATE
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/trade/fau-bb/.
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