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SENATE APPROVED AG SPENDING BILL
Last Thursday, the US Senate approved, by a 79-13 vote, a $75.3 billion
agriculture spending bill for fiscal 2001 that includes $14.8 billion in discretionary spending.
Sources indicate the bill is $1.5 billion less than what President Clinton had requested and $5.3 billion less than the spending bill approved for fiscal 2000, but does include roughly $2.0 billion for "emergency" farm disaster relief and an amendment that seeks to open up food and medicine trade with Cuba. Reports indicate this relief would go towards everything from losses suffered by nurseries, to soybean farms hit by floods, to help for biotechnology research into grains, to a program to preserve US wetlands, to citrus farmers hurt by canker infestations. Sources suggest that several separate emergency requests were made, but Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., was successful in pulling all amendments into one "managers package" after opponents threatened to raise points of order on each as they were voted on separately. Furthermore, a newswire source indicates the trade sanctions reform amendment aims to allow for exports of US agriculture exports to Cuba to private and government buying agencies.
CANADIAN WHEAT BOARD PREDICTS WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION WILL INCREASE
According to the Canadian Wheat Board's
latest long-term forecast for global grain production and trade, Canada's wheat production is expected to increase by 8% in 2008-09.
Sources indicate the CWB estimates Canada will produce 25.6 MMT of wheat by 2003-04, an increase of 1% from the 1994-98 average of 25.3 MMT, and 27.4 MMT by 2008-09, up over 8% from the same period. Meanwhile, the board forecasts world wheat production to increase by 10% and 18% in 2003-04 and 2008-09, respectively, from the 1994-98 average. Furthermore, the CWB speculates countries such as India, Pakistan, Russia, Turkey and Iran will probably make up most of the world wheat production increase around the world. As such, the CWB projects Canada's wheat exports to fall slightly from the 1994-98 average to 17.7 MMT in 2003-04, but then rise to 18.8 MMT in 2008-09. Newswire sources indicate Canadian durum wheat production is expected to decrease as a result of lower prices driven by keen global competition. The CWB forecasts durum wheat production will decrease by 10% by 2003-04 to 4.4 MMT, compared to the 1994-98 average of 4.9 MMT. Likewise, they estimate that Canadian durum production will drop by 6% by 2008-09 to4.6 MMT.
Moreover, the CWB forecasts that world durum wheat production should increase 6% and 15% from the 1994-98 average of 33 MMT.
Finally, sources indicate the CWB projects Canadian durum exports will fall to 3.64 MMT by 2003-04, versus 3.86 MMT in 1994-98 as global competition increases, but increase to 3.7 MMT in 2008-09.
U.S. FARM SUBSIDIES PREDICTED FOR YEARS TO COME
Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman said on Tuesday that U.S.
farm subsidies will run at high levels for years to come because of low grain prices. During a speech to the Agricultural Communicators Congress, Glickman said he believed large outlays "will continue for
several years to come. To keep family-size farms in business, federal supports are necessary." Afterward, he told reporters it was likely Congress would approve supplemental aid next year. He indicated he
did not have a program or any numbers in place yet.
With another U.S. bumper crop predicted this year, grain prices are likely to stay low, which makes recovery seem at least a year away.
"Farm programs must be focused more on small and medium producers and more focused nationally," Glickman said
Two U.S. representatives, Democrats Earl Pomeroy of North Dakota and David Minge of Minnesota, said they would sponsor legislation to raise U.S. crop
support rates to levels comparable to the $5.26 a bushel rate on soybeans.
To qualify for the higher rates, growers would have to show they were actively engaged in farming, not absentee owners.
An aide to Pomeroy said the
wheat loan rate, now $2.58 a bushel, could rise to $3.40 under the legislation.
ROBERTS READY TO TRY AGAIN ON CUBA
Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kansas has decided to sponsor an amendment to end the ban on the
sale of agricultural and medical products to Cuba that is very similar to the one sponsored by Rep. Jerry Moran, R-Kansas on the House fiscal year 2001 Treasury-Postal bill, a Roberts spokeswoman told DTN Tuesday
evening. Finish the article at www.agdayta.com
WEEKLY HARVEST REPORT - WHEAT
Hard Red Winter
Colorado and Nebraska winter wheat harvests are in the final
stages with both states reporting 97% complete. The five-year average in Colorado is 78% and 72% in Nebraska for this time of year. South Dakota is 65% harvested, compared to the five-year average of 32% and Montana
reports 17% of the harvest complete with a five-year average of 4%. New wheat data is for northeast Nebraska where protein content ranges from 11.3% to 15.3% and regional average test weights range from 56.2 lb/bu
to 60.0 lb/bu (74.0 to 79.0 kg/hl). Falling numbers are sound, ranging from 354 to 447 seconds. New grade data reported this week shows little change from the previous week and, in fact, most of the grade data is
complete. Compared to last year, test weight is down slightly but protein content is up about 0.7%. Moisture content appears to be lower than last year by about 0.4% and dockage appears to be higher by about 0.3%.
Falling number appears to be about 40 seconds higher than last year.
Flour quality data for most regions is now tabulated and indicate mixed performance characteristics. Experimental milling yield appears to
be down a bit from last year. (The experience of commercial millers with this new crop wheat has not yet been ascertained.) Farinograph parameters continue to show average peak mixing times in the 5.5 to 6.5 minute
range, while average absorption appears down from the previous year. Average stability (tolerance) time appears better than last year's (10.2 minute) value. Baking volumes also appear to be at least commensurate, to
slightly better, compared to last year's values, with some volumes as high as 950 cc. The data have yet to be weighted by production, thus, the moderately hopeful outlook could change. However, at this point the
trends look positive. Alveograph "W" values appear higher on average than last year.
Soft Red Winter
SRW harvest is essentially complete in the states included in the survey: Arkansas,
Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. New wheat data is reported this week for the second portion of Missouri and Indiana, where test weights are running from 53.3 to 61.2 lb/bu (70.3 to
80.5 kg/hl). Missouri and Indiana test weights are variable enough that caution is warranted in these regions. Protein content averages are slightly higher than last year for these regions, ranging from 8.4% to
12.1%. Earlier projections of low falling numbers in Missouri are further verified and falling numbers as low as 68 sec are reported. Indiana falling numbers range from 181 up to 397 seconds. New grade data is
reported this week. Total defects are higher, likely due to sprout damaged kernels from Missouri.
Flour characteristics for Virginia are tabulated and are commensurate with good soft wheat flour
quality, i.e. farinograph and alveograph data are typical and unremarkable. Of interest is the wheat kernel size data, which indicate very large, plump kernels from this region.
HARVEST HAS STARTED IN NORTH DAKOTA
As you can see from the photos below, barley harvest has already started.
These pictures are from Ransom county, ND. Reports indicate that quality is 75 plump, 12 % protein, 65-70 bu/ac, and .4 vomitoxin.
 
 
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