 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
News from the Minnesota Association of Wheat |
|||||||||
USDA'S WORLD WHEAT SUPPLY AND DEMAND REPORT SUMMARY As for the exporter side of the equation, the USDA raised Argentina's
2000-01 wheat production estimate by 500 TMT to 15.5 MMT and increased its 2000-01 wheat ending stocks figure by 250 TMT to 600 TMT, leaving Argentina's 2000-01 projected wheat exports unchanged at 10.5 MMT. Australia's
projected 2000-01 wheat balance sheet was completely untouched in this month's USDA forecast. Meanwhile, USDA found additional production in Canada, raising Canada's 2000-01 wheat production forecast by 1.5 MMT to
26 MMT. Consequently, the USDA increased Canada's 2000-01 wheat exports estimate by 1.0 MMT to 19 MMT, as well as lifting their 2000-01 wheat ending stocks figure by 500 TMT to 6.12 MMT. Furthermore, the
USDA pegged the EU's projected 2000-01 wheat production at 107.06 MMT, up 1.11 MMT from their June forecast. Meanwhile, the USDA lowered the EU's 2000-01 wheat imports estimate by 750 TMT to 24.83 MMT.
Moreover, the USDA raised the EU's 2000-01 wheat exports forecast by 200 TMT to 38.25 MMT and boosted the EU's 2000-01 ending wheat stocks estimate by 100 TMT to 17.11 MMT. Saving the best for last, the USDA
raised 2000-01 US beginning wheat stocks by 890 TMT to 25.86 MMT and increased 2000-01 US wheat output by 830 TMT to 61.03 MMT. Moreover, projected 2000-01 US wheat feed usage was cut by 1.36 MMT to 6.12
MMT. Surprisingly, the USDA also lowered 2000-01 US wheat exports by 680 TMT to 29.94 MMT. Consequently, the USDA put the surplus into the 2000-01 US ending wheat stocks, which they forecast at 25.76 MMT,
compared to their June estimate of 22.03 MMT. On the importer side of the books, China's 2000-01 wheat production forecast was cut 2.0 MMT to 102 MMT. Despite the reduction in output, the USDA left their
forecast for China's 2000-01 wheat imports unchanged at 3.5 MMT. Instead, the USDA reduced China's 2000-01 feed wheat usage 1.0 MMT to 2.0 MMT and lowered their ending wheat stocks by 2.12 MMT to 16.28 MMT.
As expected, the USDA raised their estimate for Pakistan's 2000-01 wheat production by 1.0 MMT to 21.0 MMT. This forced a reduction in Pakistan's 2000-01 wheat imports to 50 TMT from last month's forecast of 500
TMT. Moreover, the USDA lifted Pakistan's 2000-01 ending wheat stocks forecast by 250 TMT to 1.7 MMT. Furthermore, the USDA pegged India's projected 2000-01 wheat production at 74.0 MMT, up from their June
forecast of 71.0 MMT. USDA raised India's 2000-01 wheat exports estimate from zero to 200 TMT and increased India's 2000-01 ending wheat stocks by 2.3 MMT to 16.46 MMT. Finally, the USDA boosted Russia's
2000-01 wheat output forecast by 1.0 MMT to 34.0 MMT and increased its ending wheat stocks figure by the same amount to 2.2 MMT.
USDA DOMESTIC WHEAT SUPPLY AND DEMAND SUMMARY
HUGE U.S. CROPS BRING LOW-PRICE REPRISE With fears of
widespread drought fading, the Agriculture Department said the corn crop could top 10 billion bushels -- 273 million bushels larger than thought a month ago. Soybeans were pegged at 2.940 billion bushels, 297 million
bushels larger than last year. The new round of figures reflected a June survey of farmers that found an upturn in corn, soybean and cotton sowings. The larger plantings point to larger harvests, assuming normal
weather and yields. "We're dealing with a situation now that looks like it's going to take longer to work out of this oversupply than we thought it would," Bob Stallman, president of the American Farm
Bureau Federation, the largest U.S. farm group, told Reuters. Grain and soybean prices fell when trading opened at U.S. futures exchanges but recovered later in the day. Congress has enacted special aid of more
than $22 billion to growers since late 1998 to buffer the impact of low prices. This year's dose of $7.2 billion will begin reaching farmers in September. If the mammoth crops materialize, American corn and soybean
surpluses would zoom in size. The farm-gate price for corn would be the lowest in 14 years at about $1.70 a bushel, according to USDA estimates. The season-average soybean price, at $4.40 a bushel, would be the lowest
in 28 years. In its monthly look at crops, the USDA estimated the American wheat harvest at 2.243 billion bushels, three percent smaller than last year and averaging a weak $2.50 a bushel. Cotton was projected at
19.30 million bales weighing 480 pounds apiece, up 2.33 million bales from 1999 when crops were damaged by hurricane and drought. "There will be plenty of LDPs (loan deficiency payments) paid out this
year," said Stewart Ramsey of the consulting firm WEFA Inc, referring to the payments that become available when market prices are below federally guaranteed prices. Earlier this year, the USDA forecast loan
deficiency payments for this year's crops would total $6.4 billion. Analyst John Baker of World Perspectives said the potential for a long-term improvement in grain prices "has been pushed off, possibly to
2002." The largest soybean crop on record was 2.741 billion bushels in 1998 and the largest corn crop was 10.102 billion in 1994. While large, the USDA figures were somewhat smaller than what traders say U.S.
crops could total. Some market experts have speculated soybeans could top three billion bushels and the corn crop could run above 10.3 billion bushels this year.
HARVEST REPORT FOR WEEK OF JULY 11TH New wheat data is for northwest Kansas, north central Kansas, west central Kansas and southeast Kansas, as well as southern Colorado. Considering all these
areas except southeast Kansas, protein contents range from 10.0% to 15.5%, with each region's protein average ahead of last year's average. Regional test weights are down from last year ranging from 54.0 to 62.8 lb/bu
(71.2 to 82.6 kg/hl). Falling numbers are very high in each region with regional averages ranging from 345 to 407 seconds. Only the southeast Kansas data indicate falling numbers below 300 seconds (This is a region of
relatively small production.) The Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service update for July 6, 2000 validates the data, based on analysis of 4,349 samples to date. They report the overall state average test weight thus far
is 59.9 lb/bu (78.8 kg/hl) and the state average protein content is 11.9%, with an average dockage content of 0.6%. Thus the quality seems better than was initially thought some weeks back. The flour quality picture
shows farinograph peak mixing times continuing in the 5.5 to 6.5 minute range while absorptions average about 58% and stability (tolerance) times average about 11 minutes. Wet gluten values currently are averaging about
27% and sedimentation volume averages about 37%. Soft Red Winter
CANADIAN GRAIN, OILSEED GROUP FORMED Initial membership includes the Alberta Barley Commission, Atlantic Grains Council, Alberta Winter Wheat Producers Commission,
Ontario Corn ProducersÆ Association, Ontario Soybean Growers, Saskatchewan Canola Growers Association, and Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association. Grain producer groups from British Columbia, Quebec, as well as
others within Ontario and the prairies have expressed strong interest in being a part of the GGC and membership is currently under consideration, according to the GGC. The GGC's purpose is to represent Canadian grain
producers, at national and international levels, and strive to maximize opportunities within a competitive and open marketplace. It will be a forum where growers from across the country "can develop comprehensive
policy positions and send clear messages to the federal government," according to the new organization. Policy development will get underway, when the GGC holds its inaugural policy convention in November in
Ottawa, Ontario. Issues affecting grain growers will be on the agenda for debate and resolution. Speakers on these policy issues will be invited to address the convention in the sessions that are open to government,
industry, and the media. The GGC will also hold a business meeting, where the executive will be decided through an election among members. E-mail comments to: The "Freedom to Farm" law, for the first time, capped farm supports at a few billion dollars a year but removed most federal controls on
what farmers grow. In the past, farmers had to agree to idle land to qualify for crop subsidies that went up when prices went down. With growers in the third year of low market prices, there are increasing calls to
add "counter-cyclical" supports to the 1996 law. During a House Agriculture Committee hearing, the American Farm Bureau Federation and the National Farmers Union, the two largest farm groups, said Congress
should enact such a program now, rather than wait until 2002 when farm policy must be reviewed. "There is no need to wait longer...to provide a more effective and predictable counter-cyclical economic safety net
for independent farmers and ranchers," said Leland Swenson, president of the National Farmers Union. The American Farm Bureau Federation, the largest U.S. farm group, also called for counter-cyclical protection
now but said Congress should not tamper with the annual payments promised under "Freedom to Farm." "Much work needs to be done on implementation of a counter-cyclical payment plan," said AFBF
president Bob Stallman. Since late 1998, Congress has approved more than $22 billion in special aid to farmers to shelter them from low prices. Farm groups say counter-cyclical payments would be more reliable than
lobbying Congress each time the farm sector slumps. George Naylor, of the activist National Family Farm Coalition, said no one had offered details for such aid, making it hard for farmers to judge the idea.
"Everybody's getting off the hook, I guess," Naylor said. There was little agreement among farm groups about what steps to take to help farmers. AFBF endorsed additional low-income and disaster aid for
farmers this year while opposing higher crop supports. NFU said crop supports should be adjusted to reflect 1994-98 conditions "when commodity prices...were in better balance." There have been complaints
soybean supports are unduly high. NFU also asked for larger land conservation programs and targeting farm supports to family-size operations. The Family Farm Coalition advocated higher crop supports "set to
reflect a more prosperous time as in the 1970s" as well as revival of a long-term grain storage program and short-term inventory management through a "tillable crop acreage" base.
NDSU AG ECONOMIST: REPEALING ESTATE TAX WILL NOT AFFECT TYPICAL NORTH DAKOTA FARM "The reality is that very few people end up owing estate taxes,"says Andrew Swenson, farm management specialist with the NDSUExtension Service. Read more at |
|||||||||
 |
|||||||||
 |
|||||||||