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News from the Minnesota Association of Wheat |
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GLICKMAN ANNOUNCES TWO STEPS TO TRY TO IMPROVE WHEAT EXPORT QUALITY
SEVERE FOOD SHORTAGES SEEN THROUGHOUT THE WORLD
"Natural problems have been compounded by war and civil strife in some areas, while economic problems in others continue to affect food production and supply," FAO said in its latest food crops and shortages
report. In East Africa, some 16 million people, more than half of them in Ethiopia, were desperate for food, largely due to drought. In Kenya, an estimated 3.7 million people are short of staples. Populations in
Somalia, Tanzania, Angola, Uganda, Mozambique, Madagascar and Sudan are also going hungry. Severe flooding in Mozambique this year wiped out 40 percent of the harvest in some areas, although a recovery was under way.
In Angola, "persistent insecurity continues to result in massive displacements...The number of internally displaced people has increased to 2.6 million, of which 1.9 million are estimated in urgent need of
emergency food assistance". North Africa -- Egypt excepted -- is also suffering the blight of tired soil and inconsistent rainfall. Cereal output in the region this year is forecast to be nearly 15 percent down
on last year's already poor harvest. In Asia, communities in Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan and India face the greatest danger of starvation if emergency food is not distributed. A recent FAO/World Food
Programme mission to Afghanistan found the country on the verge of a "major food crisis" with millions of people having little or no access to food. Food production in 18 of Iran's 28 provinces is behind
schedule, and the country of more than 65 million people was also in need of drinking water and fodder for livestock. In Mongolia, the worst winter in 30 years has killed herds of livestock and destroyed the
livelihoods of thousands of farmers, while in North Korea chronic food shortages meant a dependence on assistance for the foreseeable future. Closer to Europe, the impact of conflict and forced migration on food
provision was evident throughout the Balkans, while cruel winters and economic hardship have hit food supplies in Belarus, Moldova, Russia and Ukraine. In the four former Soviet republics, cereal and pulse production
for 1999 is barely up on 1998, which was sharply below average. "As a result, the grain supply situation remains tight in all four countries and cereal prices are rising," FAO said. In Chechnya and
surrounding republics, the FAO expected communities to be in need of humanitarian assistance, including food, shelter, health, water and sanitation in the months ahead.
IMPORTANT SMALL GRAIN DISEASE INFORMATION
Wet Weather and Fungicide Spray-Decisions in Wheat Roger K. Jones Much of the Red River Valley has experienced consecutive days of wet weather that has led to phone calls and questions regarding the
use of fungicides in this year's crop. Many producers have been faced with extremes: consecutive weeks of dry weather followed by excess rainfall and rain events. Dry conditions early retarded the development of Tan
spot. Leaf rust levels have been low to very low although some inoculum is out there and fields of moderately susceptible varieties such as Forge, Gunner and Ingot should be watched carefully. Aphid population has also
been reported as low to very low. This means that spray decisions should focus on Septoria diseases and Fusarium head blight. Timing sprays for control of Septoria and suppression of FHB should focus on heading. It is
still early enough that perithecia of the scab fungus could develop in infected residues present in wheat and barley fields. The recent rains will facilitate their development, particularly if temperatures remain cool
and rains persist. Of equal concern, and maybe even greater concern, is the potential for Septoria diseases to develop in wheat. The development of Septoria will be favored by recent rains and past experience suggest
that even fields that have been rotated to other crops can develop damaging levels of Septoria if rains continue. Wheat stands, in general, are good and yield expectations remain high. Rains have removed drought
limiting concerns. Price and LDP program options are favorable for optimizing yields and this should include controlling diseases. Septoria can be effectively controlled with 4 oz. applications of Folicur or Tilt
fungicides. Spray timing should be at Feekes 10.5 (wheat fully headed). If FHB were an additional concern, applications should be timed to coincide with 15 - 25% anthers visible. In the case of FHB, Folicur may be a
better choice than Tilt. If leaf rust or powdery mildew are present, Tilt may perform better than Folicur. My experience has been that both of these materials will effectively control Septoria diseases. The action of
these materials is to suppress the incidence of FHB and to restrict the enlargement of leaf lesions caused by Septoria. Research trials conducted in 1997 suggested that spraying at Feekes 10.5 was as effective or
more effective in controlling Septoria than applications to Feekes 8.0 (flag leaf emergence). Best control of Septoria will occur when flag leaves are fully expanded. There is some "kickback" or post infection
activity with either Folicur or Tilt. Ground application is preferred but aerial application will also be effective. The NDSU wheat disease forecasting system is once again operational this season. Forecast is
provided for scab, tan spot, septoria blotch, and new for this year, wheat leaf rust. All diseases are being forecasted for locales surrounding 17 NDAWN stations in the Red River Valley. The system may be accessed on
the web at Dr. Hans Kandel,
MARKET ANALYSTS DISCUSS MARKET OUTLOOK Furthermore, market watchers attending the seminar anticipate
that large supplies of wheat in the hands of major exporters heading into the 2000-01 marketing year will continue to limit price movement higher. USDA's June forecast pegged 2000-01 world wheat carryout at 106.25
MMT, down from 125.88 MMT in 1999-00 and from 136.59 MMT in 1998-99. One speaker suggested overall global wheat stocks and the world stocks-to-use ratio have taken on a look similar to those seen during the
1995-96 bull market, but the similarities were said to end there. USDA's June forecast pegged 2000-01 world wheat carryout at 106.25 MMT, down sharply from 125.88 MMT in 1999-00 and 136.59 MMT in 1998-99.
Bob Riemenschneider, Director, Grain and Feed Division, Foreign Agricultural Service, stressed that despite the bullish world wheat stocks scenario, inventories held by the US, the EU, Argentina, Australia and Canada
are still expected to be more than 50.0 MMT this marketing year. "We still have ample, readily available stocks in the hands of major exporters," Riemenschneider said, "and resultant
confidence in a just-in-time delivery mechanism."
WINTER WHEAT HARVEST REPORTS |
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