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News from the Minnesota Association of Wheat |
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WHEAT PROJECTION "Large supplies of major U.S. field crops are expected again in 2000/01, keeping downward pressure on season-average farm prices for the fourth consecutive year, according to USDA's first forecast of
production and prices for next year. Wheat deviates from the general output projection, with production expected to decline 3 percent and season-average farm price to rise 6 percent (midpoint of forecast
range)." "U.S. wheat planting for the 2000 crop are expected to decline for the fourth consecutive year as producers continue to favor planting oilseeds in many parts of the Corn Belt and Northern Plains
states. As a result, production is projected to fall nearly 3 percent, but large carry-in stocks will keep supplies relatively plentiful. With higher wheat imports anticipated next year, the total U.S. wheat
supply is expected to be down less than 2 percent from 1999." "Total use of wheat is projected to rise slightly as gains in food use and exports offset a decline in feed use - reflecting competition from
weak corn prices. The U.S. is expected to capture a share of this year's expanding global import market, a result of production decreases in North Africa and Iran (due to drought) and in China. Given
relatively flat total use, smaller U.S. supplies will likely lead to lower ending stocks, and the U.S. average wheat price for 2000/01 is expected to rise $0.15 per bushel to $2.65 (midpoint of forecast)." The
report also contains a chart showing that the ending stocks in 1999/2000 were 938 million bushels are projected to be 837 million bushels in 2000/01. Ending stocks are projected to go up for all other field crops
(corn, sorghum, barley, soybeans, rice and cotton) with the exception of oats. Wayne Hammon - Director of Government Relations
AUSTRALIAN CANOLA CROP FORECAST CUT ON DRY WEATHER The forecast of total Australian canola production for 2000 has been reduced to
1.835 million tonnes, down from 1.975 tonnes in the association's last forecast in May. Australia's total canola production in 1999 was a record 2.4 million tonnes, confirming the country's position as the world's
second-largest canola exporter after Canada. Lack of planting rain in much of Western Australia had reduced the national crop area estimate for 2000 to 1.415 million hectares, down from the previous month's estimate
of 1.5 million.
CONTRARY REPORTS ON THE CHINESE WHEAT CROP Moreover, newswire sources suggest wheat crop maturation and harvest activity are gaining momentum in the northern wheat areas of China due to warm, dry weather conditions. Meanwhile, low soil
moisture levels in the Yellow River Basin have helped advance field work progress. Sources anticipate the dryness has also hurt wheat production potential, although just how much of the crop actually suffered
yield loss remains unclear at this point. Furthermore, spring wheat in far northeastern China is developing well, but there are some dryness concerns as widespread rain is needed to maintain "normal"
maturation.
WASHINGTON DONATES WHEAT TO NORTH KOREA
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - According to Reuters, the Clinton administration said Thursday it donated 50,000 tons of U.S. wheat to the World Food Program's emergency feeding effort in North Korea,
one day after an historic meeting of North and South Korea's leaders The outcome of the summit, which President Clinton applauded saying he was ``very pleased,'' is expected to pave the way for the U.S. to ease
sanctions against North Korea, as announced by Clinton last September. The wheat donation was part of the United Nation's food group appeal last April for 584,619 tonnes of food aid to its
famine-stricken 22.5 million inhabitants for use from June 1999 through July 2000. Last month, North Korean officials asked wealthy nations for an additional $250 million to help them achieve food
self-sufficiency by 2002. A U.S. congressional report recently estimated that up to two million people in North Korea -- almost 10 percent of the population -- may have died from malnutrition and
related diseases since 1995, when floods, drought and mismanagement of the state farm system devastated the rural
economy.
The U.S. wheat donation, valued at an estimated $12.8 million, will be used to make noodles and other food products to be distributed to children, pregnant and nursing mothers, hospital patients and
other vulnerable groups, the USDA
said.
FLOODING ON WHEAT AND BARLEY The first major impact of soil completely covered with water is a rapid depletion of oxygen required for plant growth and development. The other major impact of flooding is change in nutrient
status either by leaching or changing their availability to the plant. The response to flooding will vary with duration, and temperature. Obviously the longer the duration of the flooding the greater the
injury. The major injury results from plants trying to grow in an anaerobic environment. While specific information on how long small grains can survive under water has not been frequently reported, most
indications are that wheat can withstand water logged soils for up to 24 hours with out excessive damage, barley is less that this. Depending on the conditions wheat can probably survive saturated conditions for
up to two days. Conditions that influence this are temperature and stage of growth. Under cool conditions metabolic activity is less than at warm temperatures and the demand for oxygen is less. Even
so, a small grain crop that is submerged in water for two days, or longer, has little chance for survival. Flooding of water intolerant crops generally disrupts normal transpiration and water adsorption. Stomata
in affected plants will close and can remain closed for long periods, the duration is affected by soil water conditions following the flooding. The net effect is reduced respiration, transpiration, and
photosynthesis. When a crop does survive flooding recovery may very slow. Michael D. Peel Office (701) 231-8037
DISEASES PLAGUE KANSAS WHEAT Meanwhile,
agronomists in western Kansas, Nebraska and eastern Colorado report that a late spring freeze that occurred on May 13th will likely result in a 30% yield loss in their area. Hard Red Winter
U.S. WINTER WHEAT CROP REPORTS -Sources report the Nebraska
Wheat Board (NWB) is estimating Nebraska's 2000-01 winter wheat output at around 60 MB (1.6 MMT), lower than USDA's recent forecast of 73.5 MB (2.0 MMT). Some members of the NWB speculate a combination of drought
conditions and recent hot winds may have reduced hard red winter wheat yields in some areas by 50%, especially the western part of the state. Furthermore, the executive director indicates a mid-May frost event
sterilized portions of the crop, furthering yield loss in the state. In addition, producer sources who have begun harvesting new-crop hard red winter wheat in portions of far southern Nebraska anticipate yields of
fewer than 30 BU/AC (2.02 MT/HA), well below the average yield of 42 BU/AC (2.82 MT/HA) forecast by the latest USDA supply/demand report.
CANOLA SPRAY DECISIONS FOR SCLEROTINIA MANAGEMENT For producers near the Canadian border, the Web site of the Canola Council of Canada provides useful information at Another decision aid is the Sclerotinia Risk Assessment, which is reproduced, by permission
of the Canola Council of Canada, in North Dakota Extension Report 54, by Arthur Lamey and Richard Meronuck. The risk assessment is also available on the Canola Council of Canada Web site. Art Lamey Dr. Dave Franzen
ANALYZING AND EVALUATING CROP PROBLEMS When evaluating crops involved in suspected herbicide injury, keep in mind that some other factors may have caused the observed effects or the herbicide may be only one of a combination of several
casual factors. Look for other possible causes. Are there holes in the leaves or stems or pruned roots from insect damage? Has there been severe weather - wind, drought, hail, flooding, frost, high temperatures, etc. --
that could have caused damage, Flooding damage in crops which recently occurred, greatly compounds the diagnosis. Could a disease be involved? Could it be excessive or misplaced row fertilizer or a nutrient deficiency?
Or is the effect resulting from a combination of causes? Look for patterns of injury in the field. Herbicide injury is often in a pattern associated with soil types or movement of application or incorporation
equipment. Observe other susceptible crops or weeds in the area for herbicide effects. For comparison, try to find a check area where no herbicide was applied in the same field. If you conclude that
herbicides are the probable cause of crop injury, try to determine why the injury occurred. Limited crop tolerance to certain herbicides is sometimes a problem especially under heavy rainfall or sandy soils or on dry,
loose soil. Misuse -- high rates, wrong chemical, improper method of application, no uniform application, overlaps, improper applicator adjustments and tillage operations that concentrate the chemical - are some reasons for herbicide injury. Some varieties/hybrids are more
susceptible than others. Weather and soil conditions that cause plant stress may make the crop more susceptible to herbicide injury. Don't be too hasty to evaluate the affects of herbicide injury. Give the plants a
chance to recover. Check growing points to see if the plants have potential for recover. Compare injury effects and weed control benefits. Stand counts and injured plant counts are important considerations. Unbiased
yield checks in affected and unaffected similar areas of the same field are the best estimates. Duane Berglund, PhD "This event
will be held rain or shine," says Randy Melaas, cropping systems extension agent in Pembina County. "All the presentations will take place in the 500-seat amphitheater at Frostfire Mountain." Graphic
accompanies this story in hard copy and is available on the World Wide Web at
WHEAT MIDGE EMERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST ND However, there have been isolated fields
where populations have come close or slightly exceeded the treatment threshold of 1 adult midge per 4 to 5 wheat heads in previous seasons. Since a large number of fields will be heading soon, some evening scouting
would be recommended to assess adult populations in the region. To see when your production area reaches 1200 DD, the point when wheat midge emergence gets underway, visit the NDSU Entomology Updates web site at
Of greater concern in these
parts of the state will still be the Cereal Aphids. Surveys indicate populations of aphids are still low. The recent rains and abundant predators are going to help delay aphid population increases. Grain growers and
consultants in South Dakota are reporting larger populations of aphidsthis week. Their wheat is a little farther along than ours and fully headed fields are present in that area. Phillip A. Glogoza |
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