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PROSPECTS FOR CHINA WHEAT PRODUCTION IN 2000
Furthermore, private commodity analysts in China indicate they expect the country's wheat production to total around 110 MMT in 2000-01, compared their
estimates of 113 MMT produced in 1999-00, but higher that last week's USDA agricultural attaché report pegging the 2000-01 crop at 107 MMT. Sources suggest the Chinese State Statistical Bureau announced back in
December that the 2000-01 planted area for winter wheat had been reduced by 6.6% to 23.9 MH (59 MA). This situation appears to be further exacerbated by the government's declaration last year it would begin to
phase out the state's protective procurement system, curbing Chinese farmers away from planting low-quality, high-yielding wheat varieties. Moreover, there have been increasing newswire reports indicating some of
China's northern winter wheat production provinces have been adversely affected by incidents of severe dryness and insect problems. However, one analyst cautioned the crop needs to get through May and early June,
the most crucial periods for winter wheat (pollination and milking stages), before accurate yield prognostications can be made. Finally, some analysts forecast that 2000-01 Chinese wheat imports will be higher
than last year's level of around 450 TMT, but will not total more than 1.0 MMT. Even if this year's production falls to 110 MMT, sources maintain the central government is expected to keep tight control of wheat
imports due to large carryover stocks. THE BATTLE OVER CHINA PNTR CONTINUES.
Thousands of Union members have descended upon the Capitol to lobby against permanent normal trade relations status for China. Their opposition to the deal remains curious as the agreement signed by the United States last year makes no trade concessions, lowers no U.S. tariffs, nor removes any import protections.
The opposition appears mislead since trade and economic engagement with China would likely be the only was to facilitate the continued advancements in China's working conditions and wages. Isolating China would only
bolster their government owned companies that pay workers half of what they would make in the private sector. The agreement promises the elimination of State trading agencies that tend to foster lower wages and poorer
working conditions. John Sweeney, President of the AFL-CIO- stated in his remarks on April 12th that "there will be no blank check for China." In reality, his opposition to the agreements reached endangers a
$13 billion check to America's farmers, workers and industries in the form of potential increased exports per year by 2005 to China. As an answer to this rally by misinformed union members, American agricultural
organizations have planned a "fly-in" on the 16th and 17th of May. Farmers and ranchers will rally for permanent normal trade relations for China and we encourage states to send as many delegates as possible
to cover the Hill the week before the vote. The "fly-in" will start with briefings at the National Association of Wheat Growers and WETEC offices on the 16th and end with continued visits to the Hill on the
afternoon of the 17th. Please let us know how many people you intend to bring so that appropriate preparations can be made.
GLICKMAN DISAPPOINTED IN GEPHARDT'S CHINA STANCE Agriculture Secretary Dan
Glickman says he is disappointed in reports that House Democratic Leader Richard A. Gephardt (MO) plans to oppose legislation granting China permanent normal trade relations, BLOOMBERG NEWS reports. "I don't think
he's going to try to take people with him in terms of this particular issue, but it will make it more of a challenge, I think as we get to the final days before a vote." The vote in the House is scheduled for late
May. "I still believe we will wint the vote, but it's going to be a battle for every single vote," said Glickman. Democrats Have China Human Rights Plan. Key Democrats hope to put the final
touches this week on legislation that would allow the United States to continue to monitor Chinese human rights policies, despite resistance from party leaders that could imperil a vote on permanent normal trade
relations with China, REUTERS reports. The White House sees Michigan Rep. Sander Levin's legislation as a way of shoring up Democratic support for President Clinton's trade agreement with China by giving lawmakers a
forum to air their concerns about human rights and labor abuses. Under Levin's proposal, Congress would create a watchdog commission to review Chinese policies and recommend sanctions against Beijing as long as they
were consistent with World Trade Organization rules. A FACT WATCH FROM THE BUSINESS COALITION FOR U.S. &
CHINA TRADE: Union Myths & Cold Hard FactsMyth: PNTR will cause U.S. job losses and an increase in the trade deficit. "[These]
calculations are built on an absurd extrapolation of an exaggerated bilateral trade deficit? China's bilateral surplus represents a shift of suppliers rather than an overall increase in U.S. dependence of imports.
China's bilateral surplus reflects China's ability to compete against and win business with the U.S. from third countries that had been exporting to the U.S. market." -- Institute for International Economics Policy
Brief, April 2000. Myth: Defeating PNTR will strike a blow for "fair trade" with China. "In this instance, I think our labor leaders have got it wrong? American labor has a tremendous interest
in China's trading on fair terms with the U.S. The agreement we signed with China this past November marks the largest single step ever taken toward achieving that goal." -- Leonard Woodcock, former president of
the United Auto Workers. Myth: Existing bilateral agreements and annual NTR reviews will yield the same benefits as PNTR. "The commitments provided by these bilateral agreements would be substantially
less than those anticipated to be provided by China in the accession agreement and in the underlying WTO agreements? this situation could potentially put U.S. business interests at a considerable competitive
disadvantage." -U.S. General Accounting Office, March 17, 2000. Myth: PNTR is a "gift" to hardliners in China's leadership. "China's security services, including the People's Liberation
Army, are concerned, analysts say, that joining the WTO will mark another step toward privatizing China's economy and importing even more Western ideas about management and civil society-a headache for those whose job
it is to ensure the longevity of the one-party Communist state." --The Washington Post, March 13, 2000, p. A10 Myth: Enforcement of China's commitments would be weak under the WTO."? We know, first
hand, that multilateral enforcement through the WTO offers a far more promising method of ensuring continued progress in China's intellectual property environment than does the threat of unilateral retaliation against
China" --Joint statement of America's creative industries, which led battles to combat software and movie piracy in China, February 23, 2000*. Myth:
U.S. companies want to flee to China because wages are "as low as 13 cents an hour". A study by the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing showed the average wage for Chinese production workers at
U.S.-invested factories is $4/hour, more than four times as high as comparable wages at Chinese state-owned factories and 3000% higher than the AFL-CIO claims. Higher-skilled Chinese workers in sales, marketing and
finance at U.S. companies earn an average of $9.25/hour. MINSTER GOODALE CRITICIZES THE NDWC AT GRAINS
CONFERENCE. Biotechnology, the World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations, and the Internet were the main topics of discussion during the 31st annual
Canadian Grains Council meeting. The conference was titled "An Industry in Change" as advancements in technology, the future course of trade negotiations, and new marketing strategies were scrutinized.
Minister Goodale, Minister in charge of the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB). He said that agriculture is facing a time of unprecedented change and farmers will feel the brunt of that change. Minister Goodale stressed
the need for Canada to develop a "coherent, viable, long-term plan" for agriculture's future. He warned however that they must go beyond the safety net and recognize that subsidization is not a winnable
contest with the treasuries of the United States and the European Union. Minister Goodale reiterated Canada's position to eliminate export subsidies; he also called for a dramatic reduction in distorting domestic
supports and insisted on fair market access. He accepted that the CWB will come under fire, but warned that they would only discuss the CWB based on fact not political rhetoric. The minister stated that the actions and
future of the CWB "will not be dictated from a coffee shop in Minot." In typical fashion he protested that the complaints by the North Dakota Wheat Commission (NDWC) were unfounded, politically motivated, and
based on fiction rather that fact. A U.S. REPORT ON ESTIMATED ARGENTINA PRODUCTION OF WHEAT
A recently released USDA agricultural attaché report estimates Argentina will produce 13.5 MMT of
wheat in the 2000-01 marketing year, down from the current 1999-00 production forecast of 15.0 MMT. Moreover, the report suggests wheat plantings will fall after a year of significant damage to wheat crops due to
cold weather. According to the report, the attaché forecast 2000-01 wheat seeding at 5.5 MH (13.6 MA), down from 5.782 MH (14.3 MA) in 1999-00. Furthermore, the attaché expects Argentina's 2000-01 wheat
exports to reach 9.0 MMT, compared to last year's estimate of 10.5 MMT. 'GAME PLAN' CAN HELP CROP
PRODUCERS STAY AHEAD OF WEEDS Fighting weeds is a job that goes hand-in-hand with growing crops. Denise McWilliams, agronomist with the University of
Minnesota Extension Service, recommends a "game plan" for keeping ahead of weeds this year."Learning to identify weeds is the first step," says McWilliams. "Correct weed identification is
essential for developing control strategies. Next, scout crops and map weeds. These activities take time, but provide information on crop condition and pest distribution. They can allow you to predict future weed
pressure. Then, get to know the weeds. Knowledge of your adversary is a valuable weapon in the fight." McWilliams says it's useful to know the life cycle and plant characteristics of a weed you're trying to
control. It's also helpful to learn in what location the weed thrives and why. Weeds are worthy foes, notes McWilliams. They are prolific seed producers and can remain viable in the soil for a long time. The number of
seeds each plant produces for several weeds are: yellow nutsedge-2,400; barnyardgrass-7,000; giant foxtail-10,000; velvetleaf-17,000; common lambsquarter-72,000; redroot pigweed- 117,000; black nightshade-178,000. The
number of years seeds remain viable when buried in the soil for various weeds are: quackgrass-6; shattercane-10; giant foxtail-20; Canada thistle-21; velvetleaf-40; common lambsquarter- 40; redroot pigweed-40.
Source: Denise McWilliams, (701) 231-8160 Editor: Joseph Kurtz, (612) 625-3168, jk@umn.edu> TRYING TO ERADICATE WEEDS IN A CROP IS LIKELY TO BE A WASTE OF MONEY
Weeds are a threat to crop yields because they compete with crops for moisture and soil nutrients. But trying to eradicate weeds in a crop is likely to be a
waste of money, says Denise McWilliams, agronomist with the University of Minnesota Extension Service.McWilliams is an advocate of integrated pest management, or IPM, a system that involves a variety of techniques to
control pests. "IPM protects crops from pests that, if sufficient numbers exist, will cause economic damage," she says. "But one of the tenets of IPM is tolerance-the idea that eradication of a pest is
seldom necessary or desirable. The goal of winning with IPM is to keep pest populations below economic damage levels, but allow a manageable degree of pest infestation." McWilliams says crops can tolerate certain
levels of pest problems without adverse economic effects. Decreasing pest levels below the economic level reduces profits with the increased input costs. Producers need to recognize the crop stages that are more
susceptible to injury from weed competition and which weeds are notoriously stronger opponents of specific crops. "Rarely does any specific control or IPM technique totally eliminate a pest," she notes.
"Pursuing total eradication of pests such as weeds defies economic sense. Use IPM as a decision- making process in choosing management practices. Determine action thresholds for control based on cost, environmental
conditions, and probable damage. Don't rely on only one tactic to control large numbers of difficult pests. Focus on long-term management and prevention to devise a winning strategy against weeds."
Source: Denise McWilliams, (701) 231-8160 Editor: Joseph Kurtz, (612) 625-3168, jk@umn.edu WINTER WHEAT CROP CONDITIONS USDA officials have forecast the 2000-01 Texas wheat crop production at 75 MB (2.0 MMT), down an estimated 39% from last year's production level. Private industry
sources speculate the Texas wheat crop may reach 78 MB (2.1 MMT), but all are in agreement that a significant lack of subsoil moisture through the fall, winter and early spring will negatively affect wheat yields.
Furthermore, USDA officials peg the 2000-01 Texas wheat seedings at 6.0 MA (2.4 MH), down 3% from 1999-00.Newswire weather sources indicate US winter wheat conditions are generally favorable. Sources speculate
that frost events over the past week or two have stunted some of new crop growth, but temperatures were not cold enough for a long enough period of time to harm overall production potential. Parts of Nebraska,
western and central Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma are thought to have some freeze damage, but loss estimates won't be accurate until reproduction concludes and heads begin to fill. However, dryness remains an
issue for parts of South Dakota, Nebraska and west Texas. According to private analysts, the Texas winter wheat crop is expected to suffer large losses. Meanwhile, Nebraska may also see some significant
winter wheat yield losses, but a few well-timed rains this spring could help elevate concerns. Furthermore, sources suggest US spring wheat and barley planting is proceeding slowly across the northern Plains and
Pacific Northwest due to cool temperatures and isolated dry pockets. Improved rainfall is expected in mid-April, which should help promote early plant growth and development. Meanwhile, local crop watchers
indicate windy conditions and sub-par soil moisture have combined to stress much of the 2000-01 winter wheat crop in Nebraska. Sources speculate the crop needs significant rain in the next couple of weeks or face
the prospect of "widespread" abandonment, especially in marginal fields. Earlier in the week, the USDA estimated that 48% of Nebraska's winter wheat crop was in good to excellent shape, 10 percentage
points lower than last week's estimate. Local agronomists have pegged statewide wheat crop topsoil moisture as 33% very short and 39% short, while subsoil moisture was rated at 45% very short and 38% short.
However, observers feel it is not too late for timely rains to boost crop conditions and help resuscitate yields. One private grain company representative suggested if Nebraska could get 1/4 to 1/2 inch (0.635
to1.27 cm) of rain between now and May 1, the wheat crop would be "OK". ST PAUL LEGISLATIVE SESSION By Bruce Kleven 2000 SESSION - ELEVENTH WEEK (April 10 - 16) The session is currently deadlocked over the tax bill. The House Republicans want more in the way of tax cuts than the Governor or the Senate. Once there is an
agreement on the tax bill, the rest of the committees can finish their work on spending items. Meanwhile, each body meets daily in the morning to process bills.In January, the plan was to be completely finished
by Easter. This is clearly not going to happen, but the legislature needs to start watching the clock, for two reasons. First, the state Constitution prohibits the legislature from meeting past midnight on
the third Monday in May, unless a special session is called. This year that date is May 22, so they need to be done a month from now regardless of what kind of deal the two Houses reach (and the two Houses need to
reach a deal, otherwise the Governor gets too much press time on the benefits of unicameralism). The second reason is that the state Constitution also prohibits the legislature from meeting in session for more
than 120 days in a biennium. Thursday, April 13 was day 107 of the current biennium. That means the House and Senate can only meet 13 more days between now and May 22. They will use up three more days
before Easter (this coming Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday), and after the Easter break there will be only 10 legislative days left. ABORTION POLITICS. Many of you may have seen all the ink last week
devoted to coverage of the abortion bill that was passed by the legislature and then vetoed by the Governor late Friday. Regardless of what anyone thinks of the issue, the abortion bill veto will have a profound
effect on the rest of the session, and quite possibly the rest of Ventura's term. A brief recap: the Governor's staff negotiated over a three week period with House leadership on a bill that requires a 24-hour
wait between the time a woman seeks an abortion and the time it is actually performed. The Senate narrowly concurred in the House language on Monday. Despite promises from the staff members who worked on the
bill, Ventura went against the agreement. The problem this poses for the rest of the session has to do with trust. Since the word of the staff may not be the final word, how can an agreement on taxes, light
rail, bonding, etc. be reached? Ventura basically says the legislature should pass a bill and he'll look at it when it reaches his desk. Leadership is increasing frustrated over his hands off approach to
governing and this veto makes the rest of the session difficult. The intervention by the Governor's staff into the abortion arena prompted Representative Ron Abrams (R-Minnetonka) to say "You are either a
Hatfield or a McCoy on this issue. The Governor tried to be a McField." Enough said. COOP SECURITIES EXEMPTION. The Governor signed the cooperative bill last Thursday despite objections
from the Commerce Department. The bill does four things: The first change reinstates an exemption from securities laws that the Department of Commerce put in their non-controversial housekeeping bill last
year. The Department's change last year made every coop raising more than $1 million register the securities and it may even apply to the issuance of dividends. The bill returns to the old law and all coops
are again exempt from securities filing. The second change in the bill allows cooperative boards to issue cumulative dividends on stock, the third change eliminates a restriction on promotion of the cooperative,
and the final change eliminates a requirement that 10% of the capital stock be paid in before commencement of business. FEEDLOTS. The feedlot compromise was passed by the conference committee on Monday,
and then by the full House on Thursday. The three main issues were settled as follows: First, the provision requiring permits be reviewed and issued within 60 days remains but the MPCA must propose a plan
for accomplishing this (like adding only necessary staff). Second, the language on discharges was changed to state that it is not a discharge if manure ends up in a type 1 or type 2 wetland and also that a
discharge will not result in a fine if the person is following the rules. Third, the 400 animal unit exemption was removed in exchange for eliminating manure management plans for farms under 300 animal units and
keeping the provision that exempts farms under 300 animal units from spending more than $3000 on compliance upgrades unless cost-share money is available. On the House floor, Representative Doug Peterson
(D-Madison) argued against the bill because it did not exempt 400 animal units or less (meaning the rules are too strict) while Representative Ted Winter (D-Fulda) argued against it because the bill did not address EPA
concerns (meaning the rules are not strict enough). Go figure. The bill passed 72-58 and the Senate will take it up this coming week, where it should easily pass. WOLF BILL. The wolf
management bill was passed by the House last week 78-53. The compromise that was reached divides the state into two zones. The Northeastern corner of the state is the wolf zone and a person could protect his
livestock or property only when there is an immediate threat by a wolf. In the other zone, a person could protect property and livestock at any time. Environmentalists continue to preach against this
compromise bill, but the House passed the conference committee report and it reached the Senate floor. The Senate, under the leadership of Senator Laidig (R-Stillwater), who is the chief author of the bill,
rejected the conference committee report 33-32. This action by the Senate stopped the bill from being adopted, even though 4 of the 5 House members refuse to reconvene the conference committee, thus effectively
killing the bill. The Senate will find a way around Senator Laidig by reconsidering the vote or attaching the wolf plan to another DNR bill. UNICAMERAL. Remember the discussion earlier about
abortion politics? The Governor's veto has effectively killed his pet project, a unicameral legislature. Here's why: The only friends Ventura had on the unicameral bill were some of the House
Republicans. His abortion veto angered them, and they aren't going to spend one more minute trying to help him with unicameral. The House leadership will also dig in deeper on their opposition to light rail,
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