JUNE 1996
From Around the Prairie
By Tracy Sayler
LibraryHome
E-Mail
Back
Prairie Grains is the
official publication of
the Minnesota
Association of
Wheat Growers,
North Dakota Grain Growers Association,
South Dakota Wheat,
Inc., and the
Minnesota Barley
Growers Association.
Exclusive! Psychic Friends ag outlook
Will we see major production problems this growing season? What will the wheat price do for the remainder of the year? For the answer to these key questions, I turned to a highly scientific advisory service for consultation, which many people would also be surprised to learn is used by the government to formulate all supply/demand outlook information: the Psychic Friends Network.
You may have seen it advertised on late-night TV: host Billy Dee Williams urges callers to "contact one of our talented psychic advisors to learn what may lie ahead for you, in a free sample psychic reading."
So I called the Psychic Friends Network (think I'm kidding do you? Call 1-800-914-9014 ) and was greeted by the recorded voice of Billy Dee (say, didn't he get in trouble recently for a domestic dispute? You would think with his psychic connections he would have saw it coming and pre-arranged some counseling, or checked out that "Men are from Mars" book or something). I was then given another number to dial, and got another recording, this time a female voice, although I don't think it was Dionne Warwick. I was told that my reading would be based on the tarot, a set of cards used for fortune telling. I was asked to concentrate on my question (do you foresee any major production problems for wheat growers in the Northern Plains this growing season?) and then enter a number between 1 and 78 on my phone (I chose 45).
Following is the reading, verbatim, with my interpretations in parentheses. I did, however, edit out references to my career and love life (an encouragingly optimistic reading on both counts; I must say) :
"This card means by the coming of the next season, a problem that has been with you for a long time will pass out of your life completely (no scab- hooray!) You will be so relieved, that you will wonder how you ever survived the constant pressure of this burden. The harvest time has now arrived and you finally reap the rewards of your labors (50-bushel yield averages!) In retrospect you realize how much personal growth has taken place within you because of this long, hard struggle (spring planting). Congratulations on your well-earned success. Your cup is filled with joy and good luck flourishes (No breakdowns and dry weather at harvest! huge protein premiums!) You relish sharing this time of closeness and merriment with those closest to you (post-harvest local beer sales will be up!).
After my message was complete, I wondered if the same canned reply was given to each psychic client. So I called again. This time I fixed my thoughts on what the new-crop price would be, and pushed "7," for $7 wheat. The recorded reply:
"This card predicts a time of celebration for you (Yes! $7 wheat!) There will be numerous parties and social events to attend in the atmosphere of gaiety (even more beer sales!) This is a reward for long hours at work. You are riding the crest of a wave instead of it crashing down around you (everyone will catch the market peak!) You are in social situations offering new and exciting people and connections (you will miss church the Sunday of the annual meeting, and become elected to the church council) Money is flowing easily into and out of your wallet (farm equipment sales up next fall) You are finding hidden magic in ordinary pleasures and amusements (forget a vacation. You're sticking close to home this summer).
"You will soon be the principal recipient of a reward or public acknowledgment for work well done. This represents a congratulatory gift and you know you deserve it (no kiddin. We haven't seen prices like this since the early 70s) However, so much effort has gone into achieving your goal that you may experience some degree of an emotional letdown (you overspent on inputs and didn't make your yield goal) Be prepared to face the fact that this is only the natural progression of things and by all means enjoy your triumph and gain as such moments are characteristically fleeting (you may not see $7 wheat again for a long, long time) This is only the beginning of good things to come (If you mean a minimum price of at least $4 wheat from now on, we'll take it.)
Olympics will be big on grains
According to Milling & Baking News, the Atlanta Committee for the Olympic Games expects the 10,000-plus Olympic athletes from 197 countries to eat about 40,000 loaves of bread and 22,000 pounds of dry pasta at the Olympic village, over the 33 days of the Olympics, which runs from July 6 through Aug. 7. Bread, pasta, and rice will be served at every meal, as athletes generally lean heavily on high-carbohydrate foods for energy. More than 1 million meals will be served to athletes and officials during the Games, with 22 different types of fresh, warm bread available at every meal, all baked daily at the Olympic village to meet different taste preferences and cultures.
Early morning market scare
No one has the jitters more in volatile grain markets, like this year, than traders. Mike Peterson will Fu-Tech Commodities in Moorhead recalls the time in 1988 when he had a long position in a soybean market that was getting close to hitting $10. He awoke abruptly one morning in a cold panic, thinking that the soybean price had plunged to $6.30. After shaking his post-sleep grogginess, he realized what he actually was seeing: the 6:30 a.m. digital display of his alarm clock.
Kiss of death: when big media reports on price
Grain trade folklore has it that the kiss of death to a grain price run-up is when the story is reported by Tom, Peter, and Dan on the evening news and in major dailies like the Miami Herald and The New York Times, where agriculture seems to headline only when fraud or abnormalities (such as sky-high wheat prices) occur. "I can't quite explain it, but the crescendo seems to be when major media outlets discover the story. I always take it as a bad sign when it hits the networks. Then there might be one last surge upward and then down," says Larry Ristvedt, who worked for a Chicago brokerage several decades ago and watches the markets now in Fargo as KFGO Radio's farm director. The media phenomenon might be an off-shoot of another well-known marketing adage: "sell the rumor, buy the fact." "The majors often come in at the tail end and by the time it becomes their lead story, the damage is done and the market has seen its high," he says.
Break down of MN land uses
It's directed at school children, but I guarantee anyone who pages through AgMag will learn something about agriculture they didn't before. AgMag is a magazine issued during the school year to classrooms all over the state through Minnesota Agriculture in the Classroom, a program of the MN Department of Agriculture that is funded in part by the MN checkoff for wheat and barley. In one corner of the last issue, AgMag broke down uses for the 54.1 million acres of land in Minnesota: 42.6% is cropland; 25.8% forestland; 12.4% is miscellaneous including urban, transportation, and recreation; 7.1% is pasture and rangeland; 6.2% is federal land; and 5.9% is water areas.
Organic moo juice
Here's actual ad copy for a natural food market called Amazing Grains: "now sells organic milk from cows not given rBGH growth hormones nor antibiotics. Cows eat only food grown without pesticides and enjoy fresh air, clean water, and exercise." (As opposed to fat, low-life Guernseys who sleep until noon and then hang out in the bar drinking tequila and eating pickled eggs until closing time). No, the ad isn't from a Twin Cities newspaper. Try Grand Forks, N.D.