Instructor: Mike Lockhart

Date: 05/05/2010

Crookston Marketing group will meet Thursday May 6th 7:30am at the Shanty.....McIntosh marking will meet Friday May 7th at 7:30 am at the Municipal building.

The last two weeks, weather, has been like last year and we are at nearly 2.5 inches so it's starting to get too wet.....corn,wheat, beets are in and some soybean in our area, not sunflowers or edible beans as of yet.......

Soybeans......nice move up over the last few weeks about .80 cents.....new crop corn/bean ratio has been over 2.6 to 1 and is at 2.5 to 1 presently, that would normally favor planting more soybeans....weekly trend line is holding very good with several bounces up in the last month....the gap (9.87)on the Nov 10 chart proved to be a great target, but stopped 2 cents short of filling it(that is actually a bearish sign)after trying for four days to go higher it dropped lower....so where to go from here  ?????....several things to take notice of .....we are just a little ways from $10 beans (big number, double digit) and I think it may be a place the traders think is big, BUT if weather gets to be a problem ????? also the unfilled gap will continue to be a target, if delays in bean planting or reduced SA crop become an issue ......next target is another gap above $10 ......I am now 51% sold for 2010

Wheat .....yesterday there was a $1.07 carry from now to Dec 2011.......I can't quiet figure that one out.....98% of Mn wheat is planted and I think up by now ......perfect weather to start that crop off .....we have had $6.40 March 2012 wheat prices...you need to check with your grain buyer to get a HTA cost to go that far out ....it varies a lot between elevators (some will not even let you do HTA that far out)....no changes in basis or proteins discounts....WWheat tour is finding very good winter wheat south of us( low Pro).......soft wheat (east) may be having some problems with all the rain lately

Corn.....I think pretty much all planted in our area (few small fields left), a few fields showing above ground .......Dec 2010 corn continues to have problems when it gets close to $4.00(really, when it gets close to a round number???) if China gets to be a player or if delays persist look to the big gap above $4.15 to 4.50 and "get her done"  more advisory services are seeing 180 bu possibilities?????? China reports say it cost $7.00 per bu for them to produce corn , some think they will continue to be buyers......

My Good Friday potatoes may see a bit of frost Friday, the way it looks......I'm attaching an update from Betsy on wheat loan prices around mid west.....Have a good day....Mike